- orky56 parentOpenAI isn't publicly listed so it's hard to tell how this affects them from a "share price" concept. However for a company that's not public and only has capital from financing rounds and revenue, this gives OpenAI a lot more flexibility for the future and hedges risk while maximizing upside.
- The high concentration of tech companies that are spending on AI are also the ones controlling the narrative including the funding, success criteria, and communication. We are more likely to see minor corrections that effect individual companies but don't impact the market enough overall.
- Pay cut when the market goes down and pay raise when the market goes up? Sure there's volatility involved but these stocks beat the market on average and drive close to 15% of some indices (i.e. FAANG at 15% total market cap of VTI). Those RSU's drive more wealth creation among FAANG employees than not over the long term.
- This seems like an opportunity for more high rise mixed use buildings that do not have essential functions on the bottom floors. The older SFH's were probably most effected and newer SFH's despite stricter building codes are not resistant to this extreme weather patterns long term. The government needs to incentivize development that benefits economies of scale and disincentivize "disposable"/"perishable" development.
- God forbid someone learns business and has produced multiple successful businesses in some of the most forward looking, technical fields. That does not immediately disqualify their ability to know technical topics and if even may signal quite the opposite. This level of elitism often among the HN crowd creates an echo chamber that stifles innovation since it arbitrarily discriminates the dissemination & mixing of ideas that aren't fully "technical". These guys understand the concepts and can communicate with each other with that shared understanding and constructs. It's wild but that's how the top people within the field may chat, simply, efficient, and pointedly.
- Great points and a few others to add.
1. Russia has definitely chosen the optimal time to act. Grain harvest is down everywhere due to drought except...Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62149522) and they naturally benefit. Based on the heating/cooling cycles, the Ukraine land will produce better harvests in the next 10-20 years. So we see Russia impacting Western countries and alliances with grain/oil. China & India are happily importing said oil. Russia still is enjoying its victories in the information war on the West. Obviously militarily, Russia is behind where they would like to be.
2. It's also important to note that artificially low interest rates have allowed businesses to charge more for the same goods/services (sometimes less with "shrinkflation") since consumers/businesses have access to higher lines of credit. High demand inventory is turning over, unemployment is still low, and wages remain stagnant.
- I think part of it is demographics. Facebook's userbase is and continues to trend older especially for Facebook/WhatsApp and slightly for Instagram as well compared to TikTok/Snap. I'm not saying Facebook has abandoned the younger demo but wants to continue to cater to the earning and older demo. We're not going to live in Wall-E's world but when the older generation no longer wants to or can engage in IRL experiences that require being full mobile and healthy, AR and moreso VR will allow them to immerse themselves and "preserve" youth well longer than we thought possible. We are at an interesting time in history where wealth inequality is growing and the wealth transfer from rich to poor and more significantly from old to young may not happen as quickly as society needs it to. If the older demographic can and wants to hold on a decade or 2 longer compounded with healthcare advances giving them longer life expectancy and their existing investments/savings growing well, who knows what and when the future will look like?
- The traditional model of plant for 5 years and harvest for 5 years is dying/dead. Seed investments are getting larger and bleeding into Series A. Companies are staying private for longer. Liquidation events can be pushed further out without compromising growth. Sequoia Productive Capital makes the 10 year cycle less important. This allows Sequoia to focus on sourcing deals and reallocating capital accordingly to deliver results, which they have been consistent enough to keep acquiring capital from LPs. We are also seeing outsized returns on existing investments so sticking around for Series D/E/etc. and multiple years post-IPO might be key to get the 50-100+x returns.
- Totally agree. There's some impostor syndrome in play here. If you don't need the scale, why waste your time managing a more complex setup? Heroku might be slightly more expensive in the short term but your time is better spent building/selling than future-proofing or just doing it because larger operations have to.
- Not sure if it's a philosophical question but as a solopreneur I have always rolled back since it keeps my commit chain cleaner rather than have previous versions that were buggy. I want to minimize downtime and a rollback is always faster than a fix-forward even when you know, or think you know, the fix.
- I really love this idea. I see a lot of similarities to fitness with the idea of organizing regiments to sprints/pomodoro for generating flow. It seems like the current iteration is a conservative and accessible akin to a Planet Fitness approach, light on the pressure and celebratory of wins. I would be very interested in a Peloton approach that is focused on keeping the pace high and pushing me further. In my world, I need less discipline for vision work and more for tedious activities.
- Congratulations on YC, pursuing your dreams, and taking on an idea that is obviously somewhat controversial. Based on YouTube, social media platforms, and the Internet in general, our worlds are becoming more polarized and segregated by default whether it's from politics or sports. The end result is a fight/flight mindset when it comes to culture and identity. It's important to fight for the right balance or else we may be left with a very White & western hegemony. This pendulum is very important to track and ensure extremism is not practiced.
In my opinion, we need to recognize the voices and stories of black communities and provide access to platforms where creators and actors can express themselves genuinely. As you recognize, there's a disparity between the 90s where this was more successful to where we are at today. You could argue the black film industry has evolved and adapted from the 60s and 70s to where it's at today, not getting worse or quieter but more niche.
Is the goal to create and perpetuate insular communities of color? Is it to equally provide opportunities of mixed cultures and ethnicities? Can black creators easily showcase stories of non-black stories? Each of us lives in very different worlds of integration and has different stories we want to share. A community and platform that can address everything with transparency and sustainability is going to win because imo that's the bigger opportunity.
- Ryan and team, fellow space & space debris nerd here in OC as it seems like you're all based in SoCal. Would love to connect offline and share some (somewhat dated) research I've done in the space and see how I can help you all out. My email is in my profile.
Some initial questions I had:
-How are you dealing with fragmentation that is natural once incidental contact is made with space debris?
-What types of space debris are you targeting based on original designs, what can be potentially salvaged, etc.?
-What federal and international agencies have you had to deal with for permission, funding, and just general education to ensure your ideas get off the ground?
-What is the timeline between now and tomorrow where a clean sky is no longer possible to ensure this problem gets addressed sooner than later?
Very excited to see your progress with this vision!
- Startup seeks to raise funding or generate profits as quickly as possible -> VCs invest and hope for 50x return within 10 years -> Liquidity event may take startup public where they focus on quarterly profit
This is a system of private funding that generates maximum profits within a 5-10 year horizon while China and its public funding and actions is focusing on generating foundational returns and innovation that will last well beyond that 10 year horizon. The US approach of subsidies for loss leaders and laissez faire when it comes to regulation is kicking the can and optimized to pump out millionares/billionaires that can provide outsized returns to people in the market (employees/founders/congress/entrepreneurs) but less for people on the sideline.
- Totally echo all of this. I'm one of the owners at the Orange County Lingual Institute (oclanguages.com) and we see Duolingo as the gateway for people to tap into their language learning interest but then get serious with in-person or online language learning classes. We have seen firsthand hundreds of students unsuccessful with apps since they are not practicing live conversations and not understanding grammar. With 80+% retention of our 2 month/once a week classes, adult professionals get through a college textbook in a year and can become fluent enough to travel to those countries, speak with relatives, and read novels & newspapers with high levels of profiency. Language learning is hard work with no shortcuts but can still be accessible without apps that overpromise and underdeliver. Ping me privately or check out our site for more info.
- Totally echo all of this. I'm one of the owners at the Orange County Lingual Institute (oclanguages.com) and we see Duolingo as the gateway for people to tap into their language learning interest but then get serious with in-person or online language learning classes. We have seen firsthand hundreds of students unsuccessful with apps since they are not practicing live conversations and not understanding grammar. With 80+% retention of our 2 month/once a week classes, adult professionals get through a college textbook in a year and can become fluent enough to travel to those countries, speak with relatives, and read novels & newspapers with high levels of profiency. Language learning is hard work with no shortcuts but can still be accessible without apps that overpromise and underdeliver. Ping me privately or check out our site for more info.
- Good point. The Korean Chaebol [1] is all about the conglomerate.
- Real estate financing is primarily done by lenders with very traditional underwriting practices that don't factor in crypto or avoid it entirely. Even HNI/private banking doesn't consider crypto part of a liquid portfolio. You can go to Interactive Brokers and get a 1.x% rate with 2x (margin) or 5x (portfolio margin) but that's off non-crypto. To get that same leverage with crypto, you can put in a down payment for real estate (20% down) in 5 properties for 5x leverage. BlockFi/Tether etc. make that liquidity possible without liquidation. Feel free to DM me for more conversation on this topic.