- > Luddism arose in response to weaving machines, not garment-making machines.
It started there, yes.
> Writing code is not at all the most time consuming part of software development.
The current Vibe coding systems can do the full pipeline.
- It didn't kill everything. Some survived but not to the extent that it was.
> The clothing industry is radically different from back then but it's definitely not gone.
Small towns had generations of people who had learned skills in making clothing / yarn. To do the work you needed years of experience and that's all you knew.
Once the industrial revolution hit they hired low skilled workers that could be dumped at a moments notice. It made whole villages destitute. Some survived, but the far majority became poor.
That was one industry. We now have AI at a point to wipe out multiple industries to a similar scale.
- > I mean from the off, people were claiming 10x probably mostly because it's a nice round number,
Purely anecdotal, but I've seen that level of productivity from the vibe tools we have in my workplace.
The main issue is that 1 engineer needs to have the skills of those 20 engineers so they can see where the vibe coding has gone wrong. Without that it falls apart.
- I read a book called "Blood in the machine". It's the history of the Luddites.
It really put everything into perspective to where we are now.
Pre-industrial revolution whole towns and families built clothing and had techniques to make quality clothes.
When the machines came out it wasn't overnight but it wiped out nearly all cottage industries.
The clothing it made wasn't to the same level of quality, but you could churn it out faster and cheaper. There was also the novelty of having clothes from a machine which later normalised it.
We are at the beginning of the end of the cottage industry for developers.
- > I wonder how this will work with AI stuff generating code without any source or attribution.
It's already fixed. Anything you make with AI cannot be protected in any way (UK gives some leeway on certain types of creations).
So if it mimics code from ffmpeg for example, then ffmpeg wins.
- I checked and this appears to be the source.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/aft...
It isn't regret, they are trying to sell their Agentforce product.
- I already pointed out why that isn't feasible.
- Models have different nuances though. Llama4 for example you have to explicitly ask it not to output its CoT, whereas GPT you don't.
- > You get what you would have created yourself, but just much faster.
Faster but not same as an expert would have created.
As an expert you have assumed knowledge on your area of expertise. For example I would assume that the system would know to use pandas and not csv module, because the latter would be a stupid thing to do outside of learning python.
- > I don't understand the code that was written well enough to work on it myself any more.
That's worse than you think. Maybe not for you though.
They are trying hard to push vibe coding in my work and they had one demo that stood out.
They showed how VC had created an app to analyse multiple logs. It worked, but when they showed the code it was using csv module in python and had created all its own functions. The app was 100's of lines long. The same thing could have been achieved in a few lines of code using pandas.
The person creating the app had no experience of python, nor how do to the work. So they could never tell whats wrong.
.. And that is what is going to happen as junior people come into the workforce, as the next line being pushed is you don't need an expert to VC.
- You said they hadn’t one. Google search said you were wrong.
You don’t get to change the goalposts.
- > AlphaGo Zero doesn't need much human intervention at all
You should research it and not just read news articles. RL did not work and required human intervention numerous times before it got close to what it is now.
- > People don't assume LLM will be AGI,
I wish that was true.
> people assume that World Models will lead us to AGI.
Who are these people? There is no consensus around this that I have seen. You have anything to review regarding this?
> as soon as GPT-3 came out.
I don't think that was true at all. It was impressive when it came out, but people in the field clearly saw the limitations and what it is.
RL isn't magical either. Google AlphaGo as an example often required human intervention to get the RL to work correctly.
- > So IBM hasn't been doing hardware R&D for about three decades
Even a 5 second google search says you are wrong.
- > It is hopeless to read every one by any author,
It was a paper posted on HN a few days ago and someone asked for the evidence of my statement. I supplied it.
Now if they actually read it and disagreed with what it was saying, I'd be more than happy to continue the conversation.
Dismissing it just because you don't understand is a terrible thing to do to yourself. It's basically sabotaging your intelligence.
Sometimes papers are garbage, but you can only make that statement after you have read/understood it.
Use an LLM if you want.
- Clearly I need to read slower. Thanks. :)
- It's a good read and good citations.
The core piece as quoted from the abstract: "AGI predictions fail not from insufficient compute, but from fundamental misunderstanding of what intelligence demands structurally."
Then goes in detail as to what that is and why LLMs don't fit that. There are plenty other similar papers out there.
- So you are dismissing it because of that? Certainly read the paper first and attack the arguments, not the author. It even has 10 pages of citations.
I have read it. It is nothing new on the subject, but it was just the recent paper I saw on HN and the person was asking for the link.
The crux is an LLM is and can never be intelligent in the sense of an AGI. It is easier to think of it as a way to store and retrieve knowledge.
- Welcome to the world of papers. Have a read and get back to us. Dismissing out of hand is rarely constructive.
- Took me a while to find again, as there are a lot of such papers in this area.
- Good enough models can already run on laptops.
- I read the actual article.
He is pointing out that the current costs to create the data centres means you will never be able to make a profit to cover those costs. $800 Billion just to cover the interest.
OpenAI is already haemorrhaging money and the space data centres has already been debunked. There is even a recent paper that points out that LLMs will never become AGI.
The article also finishes out with some other experts giving the same results.
[edit] Fixed $80 to $800
- > Even if all the people are gone but the culture hasn’t changed
Can you expand on this? What was the culture then versus now?
For example back then it was the culture to have suit inspectors ensure you had the right clothes on and even measure your socks. (PBS Triumph of the Nerds)
- > Did you ever check Apple support forums?
I have. There is a whole power-mod clique over there that just turned me off using the site.
I posted about how to get Launchpad back as the spotlight feature is frustrating to use.
One of the mods posted suicide watch to my response. Asked if they were bot or what were they on about. My post got deleted and their post got edited.
Then I had another mod telling me to "suck it up" and it wasn't just a response directed at myself. When I said it wasn't constructive they responded with insults and deleted my post.
It was all surreal and totally messing with Apples brand.
- > If the iPhone hadn't dropped the headphone jack nobody would've bought Airpods, thus the jack was killed.
My understanding was Apple wanted to get rid of cables entirely if they could. It's one of the major pieces of waste and the reason EU forced USB-C on everyone.
Personally I find the airpods great. I use the noise cancellation to sleep.
- >Does anyway even remember when Google used to not have ads?
Which is why I have adblock now.
I just got my first advert in the chat, it launched a shopping research unrelated to what I was talking about.
- I just wonder how subtle they can make it. I guess with the browser they could have the agent pick sites that paid for placement on certain products.
- Tool calling I've found takes a bit of work, but Ollama with gpt-oss:20b/120b run on my laptop and work quite well for 90% of the stuff I do.
So it's only a matter of time.
Accountability and IP protection is probably the only thing saving someone in that situation.