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I call it the “sandwich fallacy”.

A lot of good bakeries decide to start making sandwiches. It’s an obvious value-add and adds margin. But sandwich customers are different from bakery customers, a sandwich shop has a different layout from a bakery, and making a great sandwich is a very different skill set from making great bread. So it’s not easy to stay a successful bakery and add on a successful sandwich business.

On the other hand, a great sandwich shop can pretty easily hire a baker and set up an oven to make exactly the bread that it needs to elevate its sandwiches.


After all, what is a sandwich but a stack of food?
Hmm, but you don't eat a sandwich layer by layer like you do with a stack.
You’d be surprised in the variety in how people eat food.

I know some people that roll a pizza slice (from crust to center) to eat it. Blasphemous, and inspiring.

I think they're the same? both are built layer by layer but consumed in vertical chunks, right?
> you don't eat a sandwich layer by layer

Some sandwiches naturally want to be eaten from the middle layer out.

It’s vertically integrated.
A sandwich shop can’t be a bakery but a bakery can make sandwiches it’s the other way around. A bakery needs scale, subway can reheat ok bread but they will never have scale to make their own or make great bread. Bread needs to be fresh for best results. Sandwich ingredients are stable and easily procured. A sandwich shop Benifits from a good layout but can do without. A bakery needs heavy production equipment that is not easily replaced.
I think Jimmy John's does a good job making excellent bread. I'm not sure that it is bakery quality, but it is definitely noticeable. I've bought their day-old bread instead of grocery store baked bread. I think Subway's bread is pretty good, too, except they skimp on the flour.
The aroma of bread being baked is a glorious delight, yet somehow whenever a Subway is baking the smell gives me nausea and I can’t even go near the shop. Yes, it is edible and inoffensive once baked; I have no idea what they do to make the baking process smell so badly.
Yes, I used to live in a building that had a 24-hkur Subway connected to the lobby. The subway fart was omnipresent.
>subway can reheat ok bread but they will never have scale to make their own or make great bread

They uh, literally did, 25 years ago. Breadmaking at Subway scale requires a single large mixer, some countertop space, some proofing racks, an oven, and a few hours at certain times.

Like, lmao bakeries are tiny! They have been premier examples of small business for basically all of human history! It's something you can just drop into the morning setup if your food business has any interest at all in "fresh" ingredients or higher quality like the vast majority of small businesses try to focus on. It scales down extremely well, which is why Kitchenaide does great business in their "Pro" series of mixers.

In fact, 25 years ago, the New England grocery store chain Hannaford also had a fully functional and running in house bakery, including in their small stores. Fresh baked bread and pastries and cakes and baked goods every single day.

Both companies have switched out the process without actually switching out or removing the required hardware (they both still have the racks and ovens and still install them in new locations!) to one where the bread is made in a distribution hub and sent out frozen.

It was an easy service to offer when Americans could afford to pay for that kind of thing because most Americans had fine jobs. But Subway can't afford the labor rates for someone who genuinely knows how to make fresh bread, because they have to/want to pay absolute bargain basement labor rates. Their business cannot survive if they priced their sandwiches in line with how much they were 25 years ago, with the same quality of ingredients they had 25 years ago.

Americans can't afford to pay american labor, which means fewer americans end up getting paid good labor rates, which means those americans can afford less, which means etc etc etc.

Meanwhile executive compensation has only ballooned. Gee whiz.

> but they will never have scale to make their own or make great bread

Every time someone figures out how to do something that's subjectively graded at scale the definition of "great" changes because a large part of it is partly based on exclusivity and a smaller part is based on frequency/familiarity (i.e. people get sick of or discount the subjective quality of things they encounter with frequency).

Bakers needs a minimum amount of Volume that is greater than 1 sandwich shop. So a chain sandwich place might be able to Support a bakery but not just one.

The optimal quality model is for a sandwich place to contract out with a bakery for perfect bread but barring that a bakery can make great bread and ok fillings and still make decent sandwiches.

Think apple silicon at TSMC model for optimal quality results, intel model for good enough results.

The best sandwich shops will not make their own bread because it’s a lot easier to iterate without a bakery and 100 sandwiches shops can fail at relatively low cost for the one great one to shine. Capital costs on bakeries are much higher so you can’t just iterate in bulk. But you can get good enough at the bakery.

Back where I used to live there was a place called The Donut Shoppe and Bakery, and quickly expanded to ...and Full Breakfast, and a couple decades later ...Now Serving Hot Lunches, and then ...WE HAVE KOLACHES!. At some point, though, they dropped the ...Still Steve and Cindy's After All These Years because Steve and Cindy died.
In most European countries, it is a given that we can buy sandwiches at any proper bakery.

Those that only sell bread and nothing else, are very few and slowly going away.

Thus maybe the other way around, as sibling comments are pointing out.

Substitute "most European countries" with "most Bundes of Bundesrepublik Deutschland" and you will be closer to the truth. Otherwise, I'd rather doubt it. To say it bluntly, Europe != Germany
Nope, because that is indeed what happens at least in plenty of Portuguese, Spanish, Italian, French and Greek bakeries that I have bumped into across my European travels.

One thing is right though, many Germans think they are unique on this.

I'm from Spain. Yes you can find bakeries that sell sandwiches, especially in areas for tourists, but I would argue this is not the norm generally speaking. Bakeries for locals rarely sell sandwiches.
Searching for panadaria, bocadillos across random places on Google Maps gives me plenty results.

To me it appears those are somehow related to what I mentioned on my comment, "Those that only sell bread and nothing else, are very few and slowly going away."

On the other side of the border, most of those bakeries survive in small villages with an aging population, and have been wipedout by pasteleria/panaderia businesses in towns and cities.

Then again, I never been in tourist free areas when in Spain.

Love the name. I wish I had called it Sandwich fallacy instead. (I am the author.)
You think it's hard to make a sandwich but easy to bake bread?
A good generality, but I'll disagree on the bakery/sandwich specifics.

There's a lot of overhead in a sandwich shop hiring a baker, then outfitting a kitchen to efficiently bake bread at scale. And how do you handle his days off, with n=1 baker?

Vs. a bakery only needs 4' of counter space to do a modest volume of basic (cold cuts & such) sandwiches. Unless it's a pretty upscale bakery, the customers will be fine with less-than-fancy sandwiches at less-than-fancy prices - those are mainly a "while I'm here" convenience. Vs. a "great sandwich" shop has to qualify as a destination.

I agree here. I more often see bakeries selling sandwiches that they make in house (although no clue as to the volume/financials of it), but rarely (never?) see sandwich shops doing in-house baking. The independent ones out-source to a bakery and if it's a well known bakery, they will advertise where they get their bread.
> rarely (never?) see sandwich shops doing in-house baking

Subway?

Also Panera.

Though I should point out that this is not baking, but simply putting premade delivered dough into an oven. The dough is baked, yes, but this is not what people mean by baking.

A bakery generally is mixing flour themselves.

From a quick web search - Subway has an often-changing network of contracted suppliers of frozen bread dough.

It's been a while since I ate there, but the bread quality was for-sure not up to "we hired a baker to elevate our sandwiches" standards.

Don't they just heat up frozen/pre-made bread? I don't know...just I don't think they have enough room to be a real bakery. Also, corporate financials would have centralized that a long time ago.
No, subway and panera do the same thing. Fresh premade dough is delivered every night, refrigerated. At Panera, a baker runs it through the oven overnight and finishes baking just before open. Subway throws dough in the oven as needed throughout the day, they have much higher volume.

Frozen dough doesn't come out the same, nor does reheated pre-baked bread. It's fresh it just isn't made from scratch there in the store.

There's a couple dozen fresh dough facilities scattered throughout the US that serve all of these restaurants that need fresh bread, but without the cost of paying someone to mix flour locally.

Pretty much all these franchise chains operate on hub and spoke for their fresh baked stuff.

The thing you buy at 6am (or 6pm, lol) was in an oven or a mixer (depending on whether the chain in question is baking on site or at the hub) at 12am that morning and on a truck at 3:30.

No, they bake pre-made dough. It's not the greatest, but it's not reheated bread.
I think you're missing the point. The bakery would have to sell "less-than-fancy" sandwiches, but the sandwich shop could sell sandwiches with bread just as good as the bakery would use.

The bakery has to become a inferior sandwich shop to make sandwiches. The sandwich shop doesn't have to become a bakery to bake just the types of bread that they need to wrap their sandwiches.

The bakery would be better off selling dough to the sandwich shop.

this whole thread is hilarious and yet quite insightful.

Yes, the core idea behind Stack Fallacy was that if you are Apple you don't need to build a better CPU than Intel for all workloads - you just need M3 for your Mac.

So yes - just one type of bread. Like Subway. Or Panera.

The sandwich shop should just open next to the baker. It's okay to own and operate two businesses.
This 'sandwich fallacy' perfectly illustrates why I think sports should be removed from the university system. Universities are great 'bakeries' (centers of learning), but they’ve become bogged down trying to run massive 'sandwich shops' (commercial sports). It’s okay for these to exist, but they should be independent entities so the school can focus on being a school.
Spectator sports should be run by the marketing department at the university and judged by their ability to bring in future students and donations - both important things that sports do for marketing. Justify your existence based on those two or get rid of those sports. Since this is a marketing department thing other departments should stay out.

There is a different class of sports though. Schools should have sports as exercise for students, and classes on how to get better at sports.

Just musing on the flows between the Sports and Academics sides:

* Sports gives Academics some funds

* Sports gives Academics brand marketing/prestige

* Academics gives Sports a moral cover for exploiting young athletes

* Academics gives Sports a pre-made core fanbase of students

In europe is common for bakeries to sell sandwiches, and they are quite good.
I get the point you're making but this specific example strikes me as so backwards that it's making me question the point being made in the post.

In my experience, one of the most reliable heuristics for finding a place that makes good sandwiches is "go to a place that's a good bakery and see if they make sandwiches".

I can't think of a time I've gotten a sandwich from a (good) bakery where the sandwich wasn't at least quite good, and frequently, very very good. On the flip side, if you just buy a sandwich from a dedicated sandwich shop? On average it will be bad. There are excellent sandwich shops, for sure, that do not bake their own bread. But there are very few bakeries that make sandwiches that do not make extremely good sandwiches. (Subway doesn't count: they are not a bakery, in that they do not sell bread or other baked goods. They only produce their disgusting "bread" to enable them to sell sandwiches).

It also strikes me that this argument is essentially the inverse of the Alan Kay line "People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware" that Apple people are always quoting.

I think perhaps the Sandwich Fallacy lacks explanatory power, because the Stack Fallacy does as well. I think if the reason why big companies consistently fail to win markets in which their customers compete was because of the points made in the post, then we would see evidence that big companies are disproprotionately successful at winning markets in which their suppliers compete, the layer _below_ them in the stack: "The bottleneck for success often is not knowledge of the tools, but lack of understanding of the customer needs." the companies that build these sandwich-filling layers are the customer, they understand this quite well, but I don't think they generally succeed at this. So there must be something else at play.

I also find the examples in the article unconvincing:

"Apple continues to successfully integrate vertically down — building chips, programming languages, etc., but again has found it very hard to go up the stack and build those simple apps — things like photo sharing apps and maps."

Apple's photo app is extremely popular. Apple's messaging app, Messages, is so compelling it continues to sell Apple's ludicrously expensive devices. It's literally a Killer App for iOS, in the Visicalc mode. Apple has been building top-tier first party applications for it's platform since the 1980s. For iOS, it's Photos, Messages, Notes, Music, and Safari (I'm not arguing that Safari isn't terrible, or that Apple isn't holding back the progress of the entire open web via failing to make progress on Mobile Safari (they are). I'm simply arguing that it's undeniably successful.) Before the mobile era it was the 'digital hub' apps like iPhoto, iMovie, Garage Band. In the 'productivity' era it was ClarisWorks. In fact, it's so common that there's a slang term for when Apple-the-platform-vendor starts to compete with it's application developers and uses its structural advantages to win the market: "Sherlocking".

"It is therefore no surprise that Apple had an easier time building semiconductor chips than building Apple Maps."

Did they? They bought PA Semi a zillion years ago. Apple Maps had a rocky launch but now it's quite good. I concede I have no evidence that it's popular or successful in the market. It looks to me like Apple was successful in both categories.

"In the 1990s, Larry Ellison saw SAP make gargantuan sums of money selling process automation software (ERP) — to him, ERP was nothing more than a bunch of tables and workflows — so he spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to own that market, with mixed results. Eventually, Oracle bought its way into the apps market by acquiring PeopleSoft and Siebel."

I mean, sort of? Oracle is an absolutely dominant player in this market category now. They got their through the usual mix of Oracle chicanery. You know where Oracle is struggling? All the layers _below_ them.

So I think it's pretty safe to reject the Stack Fallacy and the Sandwich Fallacy. There's clearly a pattern where big companies fail to win markets of their customers as well as markets dominated by their suppliers, which is confusing given the strategic advantages they would have expanding in either direction, but I would argue that if there are common structural explanations for this, the proposed explanations are not correct.

I guess I just think it's funny that when I skimmed the initial post I just thought "hmmm, maybe?" but when I read your sandwich analogy I was like "oh, right..this doesn't make any sense. Bakeries make awesome sandwiches, almost always!" and I started thinking about it more. Whereas if you made the same point with almost any other example I would have probably been like, "yeah! This guy's right! None of the best ice cream shops are also dairies! None of the best coffee shops are also coffee farms! I've never seen a successful textile weaver start a line of pants! None of the best...tire stores...also...produce industrial rubber compounds?" I don't know. So it's a funny choice.

Holy survivor bias batman! A bakery that makes sandwiches is good because well... It's still around and making sandwiches. That's like saying "companies that become profitable are less likely to fail". Bakeries only start to make sandwiches _after_ succeeding at being a good bakery. On average a sandwich shop is bad for the same reason most startups fail: there are a lot of them.
Erick Schat's Bakkery in bishop is a counterpoint... great sandwiches from what i remember and a great bakery. though they operate kinda separate.

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