That's not a robust prediction. Many people who don't use AI today simply don't do so because they've tried it, and found it subtracts value. Those people will not be replaced tomorrow, they will merely reevaluate the tool and start using it if it has started to add value.
Your executive team is going to "remove" non-AI folks regardless of their claims about efficiency.
Just like they forced you to return to office while ignoring the exact same efficiency claims. They had realestate to protect. Now they have AI to protect.
50 year lease write off would be peanuts compared to what's been invested with the expectation of payouts
I argue that real estate was a smaller problem than this AI bubble behemoth they've created. And now everyones retirement is wrapped up in it.
Here, have a (digital) shortbread cookie: o
Unless they let their skills atrophy by offloading them to AI. The things they can do will be commodified and low value.
I suspect there will be demand for those who instead chose to hone their skills.
AI as it presently stands is very much one of those things where in the immediate, sure, there’s money to be made jumping on the bandwagon. Even I keep tinkering with it in some capacity from an IT POV, and it has some legitimate use cases that even surprise me sometimes.
However, I aim to build a career like the COBOL programmer did: staying technically sharp as the world abstracts away, because someone, somewhere, will eventually need help digging out of a hole that upgrades or automation got them into.
And at that point, you can bill for the first class airfare, the five-star hotel, and four-figures a day to save their ass.
Using AI as a tool doesn't mean having it do everything; it means you have the skill and knowledge to know where and how you can use it.
sure, but in the real world the overwhelming majority of people loudly proclaiming the benefits of AI don't actually have the skill or knowledge (or discipline) to do so / judge its correctness. it's peak dunning-kruger
Those who use AI as tool today will be replaced by those that aren't tomorrow.
The future of computing could very well be AI (and related fields) + Robotics + Hardware .. instead of Software + Hardware.
And if your agent is running in background for hours then you are doing something wrong and wasting time.
I would be suspicious of this claim.
This is only going to be the start once AI gets good it will be so easy to use I doubt there will be any human unable to use it. Its the nature of natural language queries and companies working to build a model that can handle "anything" thrown at it.
I'm sure there are people who are more skilled at using a cell phone than I am. It doesn't matter.
Similarly, we all have had co-workers or friends who aren't very good at using search engines. They still use them and largely still have jobs.
Now that I think of it, most regularly-used technology is like this. Cars, dishwashers, keyboards, electric shavers. There is a baseline level of skill required for operation, but the marginal benefits for being more skilled than the baseline drop off pretty quickly.
One day the sun won’t rise in the morning but it’s not something I’m going to plan on happening in my lifetime.
It’s been wrong every time, except for the times it wasn’t. Nobody remembers those though. Something something confirmation bias.
Yes?
Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators.
Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist.
Programming.
Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before.
Photography, more than one big jump in usability. Film cameras, projectors/screens.
Transportation: From navigation to piloting aircraft or cars. Originally you had to be a part-time mechanic.
Many advanced (i.e. more complex than e.g. a hammer) tools in manufacturing or at home.
If I give an accountant an electronic calculator and a problem to solve, they'll be more efficient than me
If I give someone who spent thousands of hours on a computer a task on it, they'll be able to do more than my parents
If I give someone that writes a lot a ballpen, their writing will be faster and more legible than someone like me who barely writes on paper.
Through the marginal improvement is still pretty high to knowing how the tools work and how to use them more effectively, in a way that people that spend time with the tools will be _more_ effective
Uhm... yes???
Obviously even a baby has "skills".
The point is the comparison between the levels of tech. Your accountant is constant, the tools they use is variable.
Interpreting the OPs point as "absolute zero skill" is against HN rules to interpret comments reasonably. You guys are trying to find the most stupid angle possible for the sake of an "argument". I hate this antagonistic debate culture so much.
The easier "AI" gets to use (as it is being "promised" it will), the quicker a skilled engineered is going to be able to adapt to it whenever they give up and start using it. They'll likely be ahead of any of those previous adopters who just couldn't resist the allure of simply accepting whatever is spit out without thoroughly reviewing it first.
And I make the inverse prediction.
I work for a FAANG and I see it, from juniors to senior engineers, the one who use AI generate absolute slop that is unreadable, unmaintainable, and is definitely going to break. They are making themselves not just redundant, but an actual danger to the company.
Same situation with internet, we saw a bubble but ultimately those that changed their business around it monopolized various industries where they were slow to react.
Some jobs will be replaced outright but most will use AI tools and we might see reduced wages/positions available for a very long time coupled with economic downturn.