I had half the mind to start up an old project I abandoned after losing my job. I opened eBay and was floored to see how much costs have increased in my little niche.
sometimes volume and total $ are not the same.
Guess what happened next?
Not sure how comparable they are.
I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.
Rare Earth exports was a known lever that the CCP uses in a trade war, and Trump was very likely to restart his previous one.
However, the Pentagon putting money into MP Materials was quite unexpected, and people are still throwing money at them.
Russian invasion is not a black swan event, we had many of them before and there are people whose day job is to plan for them.
Tsunami, earthquake are another examples. We had them before and there are plans for such events.
I beg to differ. Epidemiologists and public health planners always knew such a pandemic would happen eventually. In fact, it wasn't even surprising that it came from a coronavirus as this virus group was the most likely contender with the influenza family.
The only open question was when. We dodged the bullet several times over the past two decades with SRAS, H5N1, MERS and H1N1 (notice, two influenza and two coronaviruses), but one virus slipping through was definitely the most likely outcome.
And I can confidently tell you: it will happen again.
If you can forsee the event, but not predict the time, it's just as bad as an even you cannot forsee.
If you can't tell us when, your predicition is useless.
According to Polymarket, there's a >50% chance that happens: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-...
Trump’s Commerce Secretary Loves Tariffs. His Former Investment Bank Is Taking Bets Against Them: https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-r...
And the senate probe into said conflict of interest: https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-wa...
Stimulus and zero interest rate followed by 10% inflation.
Do you think Trump and the GOP will do that anytime soon?
Would the GOP have to eat large quantities of excrement, yes. Have they become used to doing that (cf Epstein), yes.
Reason #1 is lower interest rates, which increase the present value of future cash flows in DCF models. A professor who does not mention that does not know what they are talking about.
>On one hand, the economy is legitimately growing and shares are becoming more valuable
The implication here is that output and productivity is growing. Not that money is becoming less valuable. A more precise term than “valuable” is purchasing power.
Are Americans gaining purchasing power? Not really, because equity gains are being cancelled out by currency losses, if you’re an American that is lucky enough to even own significant equity.
AI has been the only new investment our company has made (half hearted at that). I definitely get the sense that everyone pretending things are fine to investors, meanwhile they are playing musical chairs.
Back in my economics classes at college, a professor pointed out that a stock market can go up for two reasons: On one hand, the economy is legitimately growing and shares are becoming more valuable. But on the other hand, people and corporations could be cutting spending en masse so there's extra cash to flood the stock markets and drive up prices regardless of future earnings.