Makes sense, but if the negative effect of the bubble popping is largely limited to AI startups and speculators, while the rest of us keep enjoying the benefits of it, then I don't see why the average person should be too concerned about a bubble.
In 2000, cab drivers were recommending tech stocks. I don't see this kindof thing happening today.
> Yeah, these people are full of shit.
I think it's fair to keep LLMs and AGI seperate when we're talking about "AI". LLMs can make a huge impact even if AGI never happens. We're already seeing now it imo.
AI 2027 says:
- Early 2026: Coding Automation
- Late 2026: AI Takes Some Jobs
Nontechnical acquaintances with little to no financial background have been (rather cluelessly) debating nvidia versus other ML hardware related stocks. I'd say we're in exactly the same territory.
The other things on that list seem fairly reasonable (if uncertain). Those last two not only depend on wide reaching political transformations in a specific direction but even then fail to account for lag time in the real world. If you started moving in the right direction in (say) 2027 it would presumably take many years to get there.
It's a weird mix of "already happening", "well yeah, obviously", and "clearly full of shit".
Nah. Thinking that poverty will be significantly reduced, let alone eliminated, in 4 years is simply delusional. Primarily because a reduction of poverty won't happen because of AI, but in spite of it. All AI does is concentrate wealth among the wealthy, and increase inequality. This idea that wealth will trickle down is a fantasy that has been sold by those in power for decades.
And UBI? That's another pipe dream. There have been very limited pilots around the world, but no indication that it's something governments are willing to adopt globally. Let alone those where "socialism" is a boogeyman.
The entire document is full of similar claims that AI will magically solve all our problems. Nevermind the fact that they aggrandize the capabilities of the technology, and think exponential growth is guaranteed. Not only are the timelines wrong, the predictions themselves have no basis in reality. It's pure propaganda produced by tech bros who can't see the world outside of their bubble.
However the other things (the ones I didn't quote) seem quite reasonable on the whole. Robots are well on their way to becoming commonplace already. Quantum computers exist, although it remains to be seen how far and how fast they scale in practice. Fusion power continues to make incremental gains, which machine learning techniques have noticeably accelerated. Cures for many diseases easily checks out - ML has been broadly applied to protein structure prediction with great success for a while now. Helicopters obviously already exist, but quite a few autonomous electric flying cars are in the works and appear likely to be viable ... at least eventually.
I do think that the industry and this technology will survive, and we'll enjoy many good applications of it, but it will take a few more years of hype and grifting to get there.
Unless, of course, I'm entirely wrong and their predicted AI 2027 timeline[1] comes to pass, and we have ASI by the end of the decade, in which case the world will be much different. But I'm firmly in the skeptical camp about this, as it seems like another product of the hype machine.
[1]: I just took a closer look at ai-2027.com and here's their prediction for 2029 in the conservative scenario:
> Robots become commonplace. But also fusion power, quantum computers, and cures for many diseases. Peter Thiel finally gets his flying car. Cities become clean and safe. Even in developing countries, poverty becomes a thing of the past, thanks to UBI and foreign aid.
Yeah, these people are full of shit.