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I believe it's going to replace smartphones like smartphones replaced computers or more specifically laptops.

const_cast
I doubt it, these devices have a serious user input problem. The cornerstone of computers is human-computer interaction. That's what makes these pieces of silicon useful. They're tools for humans - meaning, it doesn't matter if the tool is better if it can't be used easier.

Smartphones were a step back in a lot of ways. Typing is slower. No mouse. Fingers are fat and imprecise. The result is most applications were severely dumbed down to work on a smartphone.

The trade-off was portability. Everyone can carry a smartphone, so it's okay that the human-interaction is worse in a lot of ways. Then, when we need that richer interaction, we can reach for a laptop.

The problem with smart glasses is they go even a step further in how poor the interaction is. Speech as an interface for computers is perhaps the worst interface. Yes, it's neat and shows up in sci-fi all the time. But if you think about it, it's a very bad interface. It's slow, it's imprecise, it's wishy-washy, it context dependent. Imagine, for example, trying to navigate your emails by speech only. Disaster.

Smart glasses, however, are not more portable than phones. Not by much. Everyone already has a phone. So what do we gain from smart glasses? IMO, not very much. Smart glasses may become popular, but will they replace the smartphone? In my opinion, fat chance.

What I think is more likely, actually, is smartphones replacing smart glasses. They already have cameras. So the capabilities are about the same, except smart phones can do WAY more. For most people, I imagine, the occasional "look at this thing and tell me about it" usecase can be satisfied by a smartphone.

MailleQuiMaille
> The result is most applications were severely dumbed down to work on a smartphone.

Good point, and it could be argued the user soon followed that dumbification, with youngest generations not even understanding the file/folder analogy.

I think we can go dumber ! Why need an analogy at all ? It will all be there, up in your face and you can just talk to it !

goda90
Voice is slow, but it can be sped up with vocal macros. One syllable/non-word noise commands.

There's also touch pads on the side of the smart glasses as another input option. And I could imagine some people liking little trackball-esque handheld controllers(like from the Black Mirror episode "The Entire History of You").

And there's also air gestures using cameras on the smart glasses to watch what your hands are doing.

I don't think any of these has the raw data input bandwidth that a keyboard has, and for a lot of use cases even a touchscreen could be better. But maybe that can be made up by the hands-free, augmented reality features of smart glasses.

itsdrewmiller
Eye tracking is a UI in its infancy but should be as fast as manual manipulation. Either form factor could use it but glasses are more motivated to figure it out. Headwear is also well situated for neural interfaces.
imiric
> Smartphones were a step back in a lot of ways.

I was among the nerds who swore I'd never use a touch keyboard, and I refused to buy a smartphone without a physical keyboard until 2011. Yes, typing on a screen was awful at first. But then text prediction and haptics got better, and we invented swipe keyboards. Today I'm nearly as fast and comfortable on a touch keyboard as I am on a physical one on a "real" computer.

My point is that input devices get better. We know when something can be improved, and we invent better ways of interacting with a computer.

If you think that we can't improve voice input to the point where it feels quicker, more natural and comfortable to use than a keyboard, you'd be mistaken. We're still in very early stages of this wave of XR devices.

In the past couple of years alone, text-to-speech and speech recognition systems have improved drastically. Today it's possible to hold a nearly natural sounding conversation with AI. Where do you think we'll be 10 years from now?

> Imagine, for example, trying to navigate your emails by speech only. Disaster.

That's because you're imagining navigating a list on a traditional 2D display with voice input. Why wouldn't we adapt our GUIs to work better with voice, or other types of input?

Many XR devices support eye tracking. This works well for navigation _today_ (see some visionOS demos). Where do you think we'll be 10 years from now?

So I think you're, understandably, holding traditional devices in high regard, and underestimating the possibilities of a new paradigm of computing. It's practically inevitable that XR devices will become the standard computing platform in the near future, even if it seems unlikely today.

tyg13
For me, voice input is an immediate no-go because I don't want to have to talk to myself while I'm in line at the grocery store, or waiting for my oil change, or in the dozens of other situations where I typically use my smartphone to do things.
bandoti
Curious to see how this goes. It seems to me it’s hard to match reality—for example, books, book shelves, pencils, drafting tables, gizmos, keyboards, mouse, etc. Things with tactile feedback. Leafing through a book typeset on nice paper will always be a better experience than the best of digital representations.

AR will always be somewhat awkward until you can physically touch and interact with the material things. It’s useful, sure, but not a replacement.

Haptic feedback is probably my favorite iPhone user experience improvement on both the hardware and software side.

However, I will never be able to type faster than on my keyboard, and even with the most advanced voice inputs, I will always be able to type longer and with less fatigue than if I were to use my voice—having ten fingers and one set of vocal cords.

All options are going to be valid and useful for a very long time.

imiric
> It seems to me it’s hard to match reality—for example, books, book shelves, pencils, drafting tables, gizmos, keyboards, mouse, etc. Things with tactile feedback. Leafing through a book typeset on nice paper will always be a better experience than the best of digital representations.

There's nothing tactile about a glass pane. It's simply a medium through which we access digital objects, and a very clunky one at that. Yet we got used to it in a very short amount of time.

If anything, XR devices have the possibility to offer a much more natural tactile experience. visionOS is already touch-driven, and there are glove-like devices today that provide more immersive haptics. Being able to feel the roughness or elasticity of a material, that kind of thing. It's obviously ridiculous to think that everyone will enjoy wearing a glove all day, but this technology can only improve.

This won't be a replacement for physical objects, of course. It will always be a simulation. But the one we can get via spatial computing will be much more engaging and intuitive than anything we've used so far.

> I will never be able to type faster than on my keyboard, and even with the most advanced voice inputs, I will always be able to type longer and with less fatigue than if I were to use my voice—having ten fingers and one set of vocal cords.

Sure, me neither—_today_. But this argument ignores the improvements we can make to XR interfaces.

It won't just be about voice input. It will also involve touch input, eye tracking, maybe even motion tracking.

A physical board with keys you press to produce single characters at a time is a very primitive way of inputting data into a machine.

Today we have virtual keyboards in environments like visionOS, which I'm sure are clunky and slow to use. But what if we invent an accurate way of translating the motion of each finger into a press of a virtual key? That seems like an obvious first step. Suddenly you're no longer constrained by a physical board, and can "type" with your hands in any position. What if we take this further and can translate patterns of finger positions into key chords, in a kind of virtual stenotype? What if we also involve eye, motion and voice inputs into this?

These are solvable problems we will address over time. Thinking that just because they're not solved today they never will be is very shortsighted.

Being able to track physical input from several sources in 3D space provides a far richer environment to invent friendly and intuitive interfaces than a 2D glass pane ever could. In that sense, our computing is severely constrained by the current generation of devices.

const_cast
I'm not saying I don't believe you. But I am saying that, as a programmer, if you told me I had to only use an iPhone at work I'd probably set myself on fire.

> It's practically inevitable that XR devices will become the standard computing platform in the near future

Yeah I mean I just really doubt it. I'm not seeing a whole lot of benefit over smartphones, which are already ubiquitous. At best, I'm hearing that it won't suck that much. Which... okay not really high praise.

I'm sure, like the smartphone, it will replace SOME usecases. The difference is that the usecases the smartphone replaced were really important ones that cover 80% of common stuff people do. So now everyone has a smartphone.

Will that be the case with XR? I doubt it. The usecases it will cover will be, at absolute best, incremental as compared to the smartphone. And, I presume, the smartphone will cover those usecases too. Which is why I think it's more likely smartphones swallow these glasses thingy than the other way around.

imiric
> I'm not saying I don't believe you.

I'm not trying to convince anyone. Believe what you want to believe :)

> But I am saying that, as a programmer, if you told me I had to only use an iPhone at work I'd probably set myself on fire.

Sure, me too. But that's a software and ergonomics problem. There's no way you will ever be as productive on a 6" display, tapping on a glass pane, as you would on a much larger display(s), with a more comfortable physical keyboard with far richer haptics. Not to mention the crippled software environment of iOS.

But like I mentioned in other threads, it would be shortsighted to think that interfaces of XR devices will not be drastically better in the future. Everyone keeps focusing on how voice input is bad, ignoring that touch, eye and motion tracking in a 3D environment can deliver far richer interfaces than 2D displays ever did. Plus voice input will only get better, as it has greatly improved over the last 2 years alone.

> I'm not seeing a whole lot of benefit over smartphones, which are already ubiquitous. At best, I'm hearing that it won't suck that much. Which... okay not really high praise.

Have you seen the user avatars in visionOS 26? Go watch some demos if you haven't.

Being able to have a conversation with someone that feels like they're physically next to you is _revolutionary_. Just that use case alone will drive adoption of XR devices more than anything else. Video conferences on 2D displays from crappy webcams feels primitive in comparison. And that is _today_. What will that experience be like in 10 years?

I'm frankly surprised that a community of tech nerds can be so dismissive of a technology that offers more immersive digital experiences. I'm pretty sure that most people here own "battlestations" with 2+ screens. Yet they can't imagine what the experience of an infinite amount of screens in a 3D environment could be like? Forget the fact that today's generation of XR displays are blurry, have limited FoV, or anything else. Those are minor limitations of today's tech that will improve over time. I'm 100% sure that once all of those issues are ironed out, this community will be the first to adopt XR for "increased productivity". Hell, current gen devices are almost there, and some are already adopting them for productivity work.

So those are just two examples. Once the tech is fully mature, and someone creates a device that brings all these experiences together in a comfortable and accessible package, it will be an iPhone-like event where the market will explode. I suspect we're less than a decade away from that event.

int_19h
What is your wpm with a touch keyboard (however fancy) vs an actual physical one?
CamperBob2
Something that needs to be considered before answering that question is that current predictive text engines are ridiculously stupid compared to what an LLM (or even an "SLM") with access to all of your previous texts could do.

When somebody finally gets a clue and implements that, no typist on Earth will be able to keep up with it.

kalleboo
Since iOS 17, Apple already uses a transformer language model that trains on your input in the keyboard.
kgwxd
i'll never wear them but i'm sure they'll have wireless conn for a keyboard, mouse, and other sane inputs, just like phones. for me the worst part of touchscreen is having to hold the device like a fancy glass egg (on a sane device i'd look up how to spell the word for that) no matter what i'm doing out of fear the wrong thing will happen if i don't. at least a plain monitor strapped to my face doesn't have that concern.
naveen99
To play devils advocate, Speech is how humans delegate to other humans. Usually faster and clearer to communicate with an employee via voice in person or over the phone than on email.
Eddy_Viscosity2
> Usually faster and clearer to communicate with an employee via voice in person

That's because the communication is going from a person to a person and both are very highly tuned to not only hear the words, but the tone, context, subtext, and undertones. There can be all kinds of information packed in a few words that have nothing to do with the words.

Machines, even LLMs, can't do this. I don't think they every will. So typing and shortcut commands and the like are far more efficient interacting with a computer.

naveen99
That’s my point. It’s not the interface that’s the bottleneck. Ai needs to get a lot better and faster …
A lot of people spend hours consuming auto-playing short-form video content. I would guess the majority of young people, in the West.
bee_rider
Smartphones are not even that similar to laptops. Smartphones wiped out beepers, old cellphone, PDAs, and decimated MP3 players and cameras.

Laptops, of course, have the much bigger screen and keyboard, not really replicated by smartphones. They have use-cases that smartphone can’t cover well for hardware reasons. So they’ve stuck around (in a notably diminished form).

If good AR glasses become a thing… I dunno, they could easily replace monitors generally, right? Then a laptop just becomes a keyboard. That’s a hardware function that seems necessary.

What niche is left for the smartphone?

Talanes
>Smartphones are not even that similar to laptops.

I believe that was the entire point of the comparison. Smartphones replaces SOME use cases of laptops in the same way ubiquitous smart glasses could replaces SOME use cases of smartphones.

jazzyjackson
A large plurality of young people rarely use a laptop if they’re not so called knowledge workers, most everything can be done by phone. Maybe clubhouse style group audio chats will make a comeback and people will jump on the ambient computing trend as clearly better than interacting with screens all day
foobarchu
The screen itself isn't really the problem people are talking about when they refer to "too much screen time". Suddenly having the screen be your entire field of vision sounds like an even worse situation for the average person's attention.
jazzyjackson
Totally agree as far as AR goggles but the meta glasses have no screen, they’re just a voice in your ear
jerlam
Not just young people, I see a lot of elderly adults using tablets and phones as their primary computing device. They're cheaper and more user-friendly if you don't care about performance or multitasking. At the same price, a tablet is a far better choice than a laptop.

If you are afraid of technology, Android or iPadOS is lightyears ahead of Windows or MacOS.

mrweasel
It always seems insane to me when people book plane tickets, do taxes, banking, writing email and stuff like that on a phone. That's big screen tasks, you can't do those on your phone, not enough space to navigate safely.
artursapek
All of this will be done by AI soon.
bigfatkitten
Yes, I’m sure you’ll be able to blame AI when you are prosecuted for tax fraud because your return was full of hallucinations and lies.
999900000999
A lot of lower income people might only have a cheap android phone.

It's more than enough to handle paying bills, applying for jobs, etc. Hell, a Bluetooth keyboard and a bit of grit + GitHub CodeSpaces and you can write develop applications.

You can also cast your screen to a TV or on a handful of phones use USB c to HDMI.

bee_rider
I’m not sure how to respond to your post, because it seems to ignore the vast majority of mine, including the parts that look at pretty similar ideas to what you’ve brought up.
Talanes
Well, I wasn't sure how to respond to yours missing the entire conceit of the post before it, so I guess we're even.
bee_rider
I don’t think I missed anything. Maybe if I’d only posted the bit you quoted that would make sense.

But I also don’t think either of us is gaining anything through this interaction, so... shrug

airstrike
You're missing the fact that the original comparison with laptops was a bit tongue in cheek
bee_rider
I don’t think I missed anything. But maybe my post was not very clear?

The post I was responding to clearly meant “like smartphones replaced […] laptops,” which is to say, they don’t think AR glasses will replace smartphones (because smartphones didn’t completely replace laptops). I get that.

Then I pointed out that smartphones did more-or-less replace a number of other electronic devices. And there are some reasons they didn’t fully replace laptops. Then I went on to think about the niches that could exist should AR glasses become a major thing.

airstrike
> which is to say, they don’t think AR glasses will replace smartphones (because smartphones didn’t completely replace laptops). I get that.

I actually read it as "it will be a replacement in some ways, but also very much not be a replacement in many other ways"

bobthepanda
Smartphones are mobile. Glasses with a keyboard would require either being fixed to a keyboard location or a keyboard with the form factor of a smartphone, and if that’s the case why do you need the glasses?
int_19h
The idea is that you'd use smart glasses without keyboard most of the time, mostly in the same scenarios you'd use a smartphone today. But unlike a smartphone, smart glasses can also replace a laptop if and when needed by pairing with a keyboard.
shortrounddev2
Smartphones replaced laptops. A huge amount of people don't own a laptop or desktop PC - they do all computing via smartphone or maybe tablet. My wife almost never opens her laptop, nor does my mom
layer8
Global PC shipments haven’t decreased over the last 20 years. It’s more like smartphones have expanded the number of people who do computing.
bigfatkitten
Millions of smartphone users never owned a laptop (or even a desktop computer) to start with. Smartphones are their only real exposure to computing.
bee_rider
But people still do buy some laptops.

It is hard to say when the peak of laptops in circulation was, right? Because simultaneously the tech has been maturing (longer product lifetimes) and smartphones have taken some laptop niches.

I’m not even clear on what we’re measuring when we say “replace.” Every non-technical person I know has a laptop, but uses it on maybe a weekly basis (instead of daily, for smartphones).

shortrounddev2
I don't know any non-technical people who own laptops, personally. Other than work laptops
XorNot
Sure but lots of people use work laptops as general laptops. Which is why we keep having to advise people not to do that.
Henchman21
You have missed the point utterly. “AR glasses will replace smartphones the same way smartphones replaced laptops” — they didn’t replace laptops. Therefore AR glasses won’t replace smartphones in the same way smartphones didn’t replace laptops.
bee_rider
I’ve already responded to this sentiment in another thread. I do kind of find it puzzling that folks are reading my post and coming to the conclusion that I missed the point, but hey, if I confused enough people then I guess I’ll take the blame. I’ve tried to address in the follow up.

https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=44330537

sandcat_
FWIW when I first skimmed your comment I came to the same conclusion as everyone else. I don’t think people are reading closely.
I don't think "replaced" is the right word, just like with smart glasses. The form factor and user experience are key attributes when choosing a device, independent of raw hardware power. It's likely we'll continue to live with multiple device types coexisting.

BTW, I have to consciously turn off my cybersecurity mindset when thinking about smart glasses. It's hard not to see all the new attack vectors they introduce.

paul7986
It won't replace you can't take selfies with smart glasses!

I wear my Ray Ban Metas a lot (bought in 2023) and love them but i can't take selfies with them. I have to pull out my phone. They are complimentary to phone tho i do enjoy not having my phone on me to take pics, vids and ask it for the time now (add 5G to it and it will do more like stream music).

Whatever Open AI is working on to replace the iPhone it will need to be able take selfies! I'm betting it's just an AI Phone with the experience of the movie H.E.R. where almost everything is done from the lock screen and it takes the best selfies of you (gets you to the best lighting) and everything under the sun.

nsxwolf
Just stand in front of a mirror.
paul7986
huh so all selfies will no longer then show peoples' complete face (eyes) and taking outdoor selfies you need to carry a mirror?
nsxwolf
Not all solutions are perfect.
1659447091
> you can't take selfies with smart glasses!

Sounds like a value proposition for society, to me!

derwiki
Why are selfies so important?
paul7986
60% of all Americans take selfies. Im way out of the "selfie," demographic yet take a good amount of selfies especially when traveling.

Selfies are apart of culture now.. that won't change!

kepano
In what way did smartphones replace laptops?
acuozzo
OP is trying to say it'll only be a partial replacement.
TiredOfLife
Ordinary people do everything on smartphones nowadays.
racl101
Yeah I can see that. Teenagers are in specially adroit at doing most computer related work from their phone. My niece owns a new Macbook and barely cracks it open. Prefers to do most things on the iPhone and actually manages it.

Me, (old millennial) can not even conceive getting any real work done just on the smartphone. But I'm a power user. I need to log onto linux servers and administer them. Or I need to crack open Excel files and use spreadsheets. Not an ordinary user.

andoando
For most people, whats the use case of a laptop?

You only really need one for doing some type of work

fnord77
it's gotten to the point where genz doesn't know how to use laptops/desktops
kube-system
Outside of this tech bubble that we are all in, many use them as their primary (or only) computer. More than 60% of internet traffic is from mobile phones.
That's exactly the point.
shortrounddev2
Lots of people don't own laptops or desktops. They do all computing through a smartphone.
iancmceachern
Smartphones didn't replace laptops.

Laptops and tablets replaced desktops. Nobody sits down in an office and does work on a smartphone.

Smartphones replaced phones, pagers, music players and cameras.

mulmen
The smartphone completely replaced the personal computer for most people.

10 years ago all my non-tech friends and family had laptops. Now they all use their smartphones as primary computing devices. My nephew who just graduated from high school and works in IT doesn’t even own a personal laptop.

bobthepanda
This makes sense; a personal computer at this point is either a phone or a desktop for high performance niches, and laptops are in the unsatisfying middle. Particularly anything in the netbook or ultrabook segment.
freehorse
I used to agree to this statement, before apple silicon came.

Also, mini pcs is a new trend nowadays. I wouldn't say that this is the direction things go any more.

bobthepanda
They're good at the performance niche, but how many people need performance? The mac is good at coding and media editing (not gaming) and that's not an everyday person market; I think the market will continue to shrink.

I'd also say a mini PC is still a "performant desktop" in a smaller form factor, which is probably a reaction to gaming desktops becoming unnecessarily large and unwieldy. Similar to how importing Japanese kei trucks has become popular now that American pickups are sized for vanity and not work practicality.

freehorse
I am not sure about how the market shrinks or expands. There may be a lot of reasons people may need a computer instead of a phone, like even writing emails is not that convenient on a phone to do it on regular basis. People may still do it on a tablet with an external keyboard, and theoretically they could also use an external keyboard and screen on a phone, but phones are not really designed for that for a non-techy person (I have tried to use an iphone in this way, it was a horrible user experience due to iOS). Smartphones are chastised devices. They could have a lot of potential if they were actually letting people do stuff on them, but that's not what they are designed for. They are designed for serving content passively while giving as little freedom to the user as possible.

Mini PCs have the same problem like laptops, in trying to squeeze performance in a small form factor which then poses a heat dissipation issue (and even more because the adapter is typically inside the form in this case and that results in more heat). And you cannot put the same high end gaming gpu in a small form factor, which is an extra characteristic they share with laptops vs larger desktops.

Also macs are fine with gaming if the game actually runs. It would not be my primary choice or suggestion if looking specifically for a gaming machine, but I also do not need to look for another machine for gaming now that I have a macbook anyway, as it runs games good enough at high end settings. But a mini pc would not have been a suggestion as gaming machine either.

bee_rider
My dad worked from the 90’s until recently. He never owned a laptop. Until he retired, he went out and bought one almost immediately upon retirement, hah.
BurningFrog
Smartphones replaced laptops, but not for everything.

Smart glasses will probably do the same to smartphones.

Things are rarely completely replaced, at least not quickly.

gopher2000
Smart glasses will have the potential to cover more use cases than a smart phone ever did due to the potential of AR-enabled viewing display.
dehrmann
> Nobody sits down in an office and does work on a smartphone

Now that we have USB-C monitors, phones have USB-C, and high-end phones have CPU performance similar to low-end desktop CPUs (A18 vs Intel 14100), we could actually start replacing laptops with phones for some use cases.

freehorse
The biggest hindrance to this is apple itself with ios.

I would be glad to only have to take an external monitor to use with my phone while traveling, but there is little I can do and iphones is not very user friendly in such a way.

absurdo (dead)

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