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Proof of concept. It's a lot easier to do something, if you know it can be done.

benjiro
Its more about money.

If you know that something can be done, and there is a potential market for such a project, it then becomes easier to get the funding. Chicken or the egg...

One thing we also need to point out, is that SpaceX uses like 80% of their yearly launches, for their own communication / sat service. This gave a incentive for that investment.

Is the same reason why, despite SpaceX throwing those things up constantly, there really is a big lag of competitors with reusable rockets. Its not that they where / not able to quickly get the same tech going. They simply have less market, vs what SpaceX does non-stop. So the investments are less, what in time means less fast development.

SpaceX is a bit of a strange company, partially because they used a lot of the public funds to just throw shit at the wall, and see what sticks. This resulted in them caring less if a few rockets blew up, as long as they got the data for the next one with less flaws. It becomes harder when there is more oversight of that money, or risk averse investors. Then you really want to be sure that thing goes up and come back down into one piece from the first go.

A lot of projects funding are heavily based upon the first or second try of something, and then (sometimes unwisely) funding is pulled if it was not a perfect success story.

PaulHoule
Even before SpaceX started launching their own satellites in huge numbers they had a business model where they were selling the launch, not the rocket, and selling it at a fixed price, so if some small refinement saved them 5% on launch costs it went to their pockets so they had an incentive to make those small refinements.

Dragon 9 was based on conservative and boring technology but it was cost optimized before it was reusable, then reusability crushed the competition.

For that matter, Starship is boring. "Throw at the wall and see what sticks" isn't "trying a bunch of crazy stuff" but trying a bunch of low and medium risk things. For instance, development of the Space Shuttle thermal tiles was outrageously expensive and resulted in a system that was outrageously expensive to maintain. They couldn't change it because lives were at stake. With Starship they can build a thermal protection system which is 90% adequate and make little changes that get it up to 100% adequate and then look at optimizing weight, speed of reuse and all that. If some of them burn up it is just money since there won't be astronauts riding it until it is perfected.

imtringued
Starship has exactly the opposite development strategy to what made the Falcon 9 so successful. Calling a complete change in process and philosophy "boring" appears to be hubris.

Falcon 9 didn't have three versions of which two were obsolete. Falcon 9 didn't put optional goals on the critical path, which are now delaying and preventing commercial launches.

inemesitaffia
Falcon had multiple versions and upper stage reusability was planned too.
>they used a lot of the public funds to just throw shit at the wall, and see what sticks.

This is where I think the business acumen came into play. Because the govt is self-insured, it allowed SpaceX to pass the high risk off to the taxpayer. Once the tech matured, the risk was low enough to be palatable for private industry use.

And FWIW, I don’t mean that as disparaging to SpaceX, just an acknowledgment of the risk dynamics.

It would be nice to hear the contrary perspectives that lead to downvotes. From my perspective, the advice dynamic is very clear. There was relatively little investment and private customer engagement with SpaceX until large government contracts were secured. The risk was just too high for any org except the government to bear, until the tech matured.
inemesitaffia
SpaceX didn't get government money to develop reusability.

It cost them more than Falcon 9 development.

Same with Starlink.

This isn't Concorde

bumby
You’re right, but missed the point. It’s great they designed for reusability. However, little private money was willing to bet on that early in the game. It was still reliant on a govt willing to take that risk. That’s the way high risk nascent industries tend to become mature, lower risk industries.
IncreasePosts
Bezos wants to do satellite internet just like spaceX, owns a rocket company, but is still going to buy rides on 3rd party non-reusable rockets
panick21_
Honda is not running this as a commercial rocket. This seems more like a test platform. Or a way to train engineers.

SpaceX invested in reusability long before they had any idea about their own launch services.

> Its not that they where / not able to quickly get the same tech going. They simply have less market

BlueOrigin has been trying for nearly as long as SpaceX and have infinite money and don't care about market. Apparently having lots of money doesn't make you able to 'quickly get the same tech'.

RocketLab was to small and had to first grow the company in other ways. And the CEO initially didn't believe in large rockets. And their own efforts of re-usability, despite excellent engeeners didn't pan out to 'quickly get the same tech'.

Arianespace had enough market in theory, they just didn't want to invest money. And now that they do, they are completely failing at at 'quickly getting the same tech' despite them getting lots and lots of money. More money in fact then SpaceX used to develop the Falcon 9 initially. And at best they get some demonstrators out of it.

ULA has invested many billions in their next generation rockets, and they were absolutely not confident that they could 'quickly get the same tech'.

Tons of money flowed into the rocket business, specially if you include Blue. Japan, India, Europe, China and US market have all ramped up investment. And nobody has replicated what SpaceX did more then 10 years ago.

So as far as I can tell, there is exactly 0 evidence that people who can invest money can replicate the technology and the operations.

> partially because they used a lot of the public funds to just throw shit at the wall

The used all their costumers rockets to do tests after they had performed the service. Some of those rockets were bought by 'the public'. And the first reflown rockets didn't carry public payloads. Other companies could have done the same with not that much investment, they just didn't care to.

What result SpaceX caring less, is because they were already so good at building rockets that even their non-reusable rockets were cheaper then anybody else, even with reusable tech like legs attached. Falcon 9 was so much better then anything else that even without re-usabiltiy they were profitable.

Their business didn't depend on re-usability. I don't think the other rocket companies could even imagine something like that to be possible.

kurthr OP
I agree, a lot is about money, but it's not like Honda is raising external funds. Getting management to agree to do anything pretty much requires guaranteed success in large organizations.
inemesitaffia
Public funds?

Where's the money?

PaulHoule
Also psychology and politics kept people from following the easy path.

The Space Shuttle was wrong in so many ways, not least that it was a "pickup truck" as opposed to a dedicated manned vehicle (with appropriate safety features) or a dedicated cargo vehicle. Because they couldn't do unmanned tests they were stuck with the barely reusable thermal tiles and couldn't replace them with something easier to reuse (or safer!)

Attempts at second generation reusable vehicles failed because rather than "solving reuse" they were all about single-stage to orbit (SSTO) [2] and aerospike engines and exotic composite materials that burned up the money/complexity/risk/technology budgets.

There was a report that came out towards the end of the SDI [3] phase that pointed out the path that SpaceX followed with Dragon 9 where you could make rather ordinary rockets and reuse the first stage but expend the second because the first stage is most of the expense. They thought psychology and politics would preclude that and that people would be seduced by SSTO, aerospikes, composites, etc.

Funny though out of all the design studies NASA did for the Shuttle and for heavy lift vehicles inspired by the O'Neill colony idea, there was a sketch of a "fly back booster" based on the Saturn V that would have basically been "Super Heavy" that was considered in 1979 that, retrospectively, could have given us Starship by 1990 or so. But no, we were committed to the Space Shuttle because boy the Soviet Union was intimidated by our willingness and ability to spend on senseless boondoggles!

[1] The first few times the shuttle went up they were afraid the tiles would get damaged and something like the Columbia accident would happen, they made some minor changes to get them to stick better and stopped worrying, at least in public. It took 100 launches for a failure mode than affects 1% of launches to actually happen.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-stage-to-orbit

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative (which would have required much cheaper launch)

EvanAnderson
> The Space Shuttle was wrong in so many ways, not least that it was a "pickup truck" as opposed to a dedicated manned vehicle (with appropriate safety features) or a dedicated cargo vehicle.

I wonder what the STS system would have been like if the DoD's cross-range requirement hadn't been imposed.

PaulHoule
That too... And the whole boondoggle about launching from Vandenberg that never happened. That bit about it being "dual use" though helped in the "intimidate the Soviet Union" department.
EvanAnderson
I enjoy the theory that the Space Shuttle fulfilled its mission as an economic weapon w/ respect to Buran.
PaulHoule
Well it did, but if you look at health care or infrastructure you'll see that the U.S. can intimidate anybody except maybe the Chinese when it comes to spending money.
RataNova
Amazing (and kind of frustrating) how many decades it took for the industry to circle back to those more pragmatic ideas
bluGill
Politicians don't like boring pragmatic ideas, they like cutting edge new things. You see it all over. Building a fancy building when a boring box would do. Building expensive trains when a cheap bus would do as well. Investing in cutting edge tech of all types when the existing technology already works perfectly and we have no reason to think the new will be better. Don't get me wrong, there is a time and place for fancy buildings, trains, and cutting edge technology, but politics often invests in the above when there is no reason to think they have a place just because it looks good.
ambicapter
> Because they couldn't do unmanned tests

Why not? Certainly not for technical reasons, the shuttle had automatic landing capability (which was never used, purely from the pilot's preference).

mempko
I mean, SpaceX also knew it could be done since reusable rocket tests happened in the 90s.
hwillis
The DC-X was 9.1 tonnes empty and 19 tonnes full- meaning landing thrust was ~half of takeoff thrust. The Falcon 9 was 400 tonnes full and 26 tonnes empty, so takeoff thrust was >20x higher than landing thrust.

That's a huge engineering difference, roughly like the difference between a car and a helicopter. The Falcon 9 was also 4x taller, meaning 16x more force to correct a lean. A little burp would send the rocket right back up in the air.

kurthr OP
Don't you mean the SpaceShuttle in the 80s? or Delta Clipper which didn't reach orbit?

Really, what SpaceX did was radically different from the tests in the 90s from the rockets, to the controls, to the reusability goals. Otherwise they wouldn't have built Grasshopper.

Now NewGlen is kinda a knockoff of Delta Clipper, but that's a different beast.

mensetmanusman
And physics, nothing prevents the goal beyond execution.
bookofjoe
See, for example: 4-minute mile
LeifCarrotson
I don't know how relevant that is. That's something that can be done by an individual, training for something slightly slower than 4 minutes and pushing through to achieve a time that onlookers might not have expected.

The real friction in building a reusable rocket isn't the engineering, it's setting "let's build a reusable rocket" as a design goal, and getting a whole bunch of engineers and a whole bunch of dollars to start on that goal.

You have to start with a whiteboard sketch and board-room presentation that shows it's achievable, and then send the engineers out to refine the sketch into something worth funding, and then work for months or years to build a rocket that would be a disaster if it's not achievable.

bookofjoe
>Proof of concept. It's a lot easier to do something, if you know it can be done.

This.

What I wanted to emphasize was how, after Bannister finally broke through the 4-minute barrier, many others did it soon after: 3 more in 1954; 4 in 1955; 3 in 1956; 5 in 1957; 4 in 1958.

List: https://imgur.com/a/UadE3xa

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