Apple today is very different from the Apple that launched the iPhone and the original App Store - they started off thinking all apps could be PWAs, but the Web Platform wasn't mature enough at the time and they pivoted to native, that's the actual truth.
Now they're addicted to in-app-purchase money from casino games and don't want that money moving out of their 30% taxable grasp. It's a sad story, truly.
This interaction was with Tony Fadell who had been involved with an Apple smartphone since 2004. The iPhone App Store would launch in 2008. 'Thoughts on Flash' would be penned in 2010.
There's maybe not a straight line march from iPhone to App Store, but the right people had had years to think about how an App Store business would work. And even built a first draft implementation for the iPod. When they ultimately decided on that direction, they weren't starting from zero.
And Tony Fadell famously lost the job of making the iPhone. His idea was to use the OS used in the iPods. Jobs instead chose to minify macOS. Fadell then kind of lost his political grip at Apple and left afterwards.
If that’s the case, why aren’t all of the same games moving to the web for Android?
SciPlay in particular comes to mind because they have built out their own payment processing on platforms that support it. They explicitly want to avoid headwinds from Walled Gardens making decrees. They would already have momentum if/when mobile platforms allow third-party transactions.
That's not to say they would also abandon the distribution benefits the mobile storefronts offer over PWAs. But payment processing wouldn't be the sole thing that keeps them. This is why Apple fights so vigorously to defend their wall. The benefit isn't innate for players or for developers. Once developers reach a certain level of maturity, the wall benefits Apple at everyone else's expense.
With the recent cracks in the wall caused by Epic, I would expect social casino space to be an early adopter in any alternative payment flows that emerge. But honestly I would expect games in general to react quickly, since Apple is walking in Facebook's footsteps and actively detoxing their games revenue habit in favor of advertising revenue. There's more incentive than ever to build a direct relationship with your customers instead of having to proxy them through Apple.
...now, putting on my conspiracy hat... how difficult is it for n00b-company/developer to get a business license to accept credit card payments (and issue refunds/chargebacks) for SlotMaster9000, versus "I'm and app-store developer, Apple fronts the income-washing and chargeback hassles as a first-line defense.
Literally: what's the difference in setting up a Shopify thingy full of digital-content-tokens and running Apple Pay on it?
Remember that WebGL video-poker thing a few months ago? Wire that up to Apple Pay and what's the difference?
Besides, many people don’t want to pay every random website and they trust Apple.
Apple banned flash when web apps were the _only_ apps on the iphone (besides the preloaded apps). The App Store [1] is ~18 months after the iPhone [2] was released.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App_Store_(Apple)
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone