Waiting until funds hit your bank account is cash basis accounting and even in that case, I am not sure how having a third party like Stripe holding the money affects things.
One thing that people that use services like Stripe really ought to do is to make sure they understand exactly what the position is that they maneuver themselves into, it looks like a lot of this is driven by wishful thinking rather than understanding.
Legally speaking Stripe has the option to refund a customer during the hold-back period at their discretion. Technically you are not supposed to send any physical goods until you have received the payment. If you do so that is at your own risk.
The moral of the story: do not enter into an agreement without understanding the terms and the practical implications of those terms when applied to you and the relationship with your customer as well as the transactions themselves if you don't want to be surprised by some of the potential outcomes.
You buy the product and ship it, costing you $75k. Your balance is now at $25k.
You expect revenue of $150k from customers. This would take your balance to $175k with net profit of $75k.
But Stripe refunds the customers, and the revenue never comes. Your net loss (excluding labor, marketing etc.) is now either $75k (the money that is no longer in your account) or $150k (expected balance vs. the actual balance).
It doesn't make sense to take the sum of those two. Your expectation was that the incoming revenue would cover the procurement and shipping.
So it's not just an estimate. The money is not imaginary, it has already been collected from the customers.
This is double counting, and not how you calculate net loss.
You can't take both a negative and a positive cash outflow, then make them both positive and add them together.
Companies magically going out of business after getting their money is one of the reasons these hold backs exist in the first place.
Stripe is now "considering" refunding all these customers, while holding 150k of our generated revenue.
Due to the products being bought and shipped, (and not even factoring in marketing costs) this easily equates to a total net loss of 250k for our business.