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> in 1985 the USA had 21,000+ nuclear weapons, USSR 39,000+.

This is one of the facts from this era which seems completely irrational to me. Considering the damage each one of these devices can do why do you need so many.

Lets presume you're in fact a genocidal maniac (i didn't say the roleplaying would be difficult America) 1 bomb per enemy military installation and 1 bomb per population centre over 100k population friend, foe, own country included.

Why do you need the other 18,000 bombs?


> Why do you need the other 18,000 bombs?

Second-wave strategic targets ( surviving silos, airfields, ports and C3 facilities )

Tactical targets ( tank formations , POL depots, troop assembly areas, aviation FOBs )

Naval targets ( submarines, surface vessels, sonar installations )

Mobility targets ( bridges, valleys, tunnels )

Plus accounting for failed weapons, losses en route, missed targets...

If you have made so many enemies that you need 18,000 nuclear bombs to feel safe, I question your attitude to life.
As others have said - the primary reason is that you need 1+ nukes to take out the other side's launch sites, and the other side knows this so they spread the siloses across their whole territory - so now you need 1+ nukes for every silo they have (or suspect they have), and they need 1+ nukes for every silo you have (or suspect you have), and this is a positive feedback loop.
By the time your nukes get to the silos, they will most likely be empty already though.
Which is the reason you want to have more nukes than they have silos - to be able to hit all of them at once in a surprise attack (also called "first strike").
i don't see any real reasons, i bet lunch the main idea was to be able to credibly publish a bar graph showing your count larger than that of your enemies.
Why do you need the other 18,000 bombs?

Every bomb must be purchased from the armaments manufacturers who actually control our society. The same who originally bamboozled Truman into damning our species. Your question is equivalent to "why do they want more money?"

Any money is in selling bombs that are used, so you can sell more. Not much money in nukes, and you can very by stock exchange listings.

This kind of conspiracy thinking utterly ignores the horrifying logic of MAD. Read a bit about Bernard Brodie, pre-eminent strategist, he laid it all out for why deterrence was sadly the only way to go and that we must live in a state of mutually assured destruction.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Brodie_(military_str...

> Any money is in selling bombs that are used, so you can sell more. Not much money in nukes

World nuclear arms spending hit $73bn last year – half of it by US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/nuclear-weapon...

"The U.S. government is now estimated to have 6,800 nuclear weapons at its disposal, but America hasn’t actually built a new warhead or bomb since the 1990s. “It has refurbished several types in recent years to extend their lifetime,”...The B61-12 atomic bombs, for instance, are to undergo a life-extension program that will cost roughly $9.5 billion. There are 400 to 500 of these bombs... which means refurbishing one will cost about $20 million.

W-80 warheads, another type being refurbished, are estimated to cost $75 million each ... the total cost of the W-80 life extension plan will be $7.3 billion to $9.9 billion over 17 years."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/heres-how-much-a-nuclear-wea...

Sounds like serious money to me. More details about which companies are making the most money and how:

http://www.nuclearweaponsmoney.org/corporations/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/01/02/20-companies...

The US govt spends 7.3 trillion dollars per year. So that’s about 0.5% of spending. As a fraction of US GDP it’s about 0.17%.

It’s tiny. The claim I was arguing against was this:

> the armaments manufacturers who actually control our society

You can’t control society with 0.17% of US GDP!

Note also that most of that spending does not flow to arms contractors so the actual figure is less. The bulk is spend on the defense department and other government agencies.

Here’s the report your article cites. See page 9

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ican/pages/1549/attach...

Well, it seems a bit pointless debating whether billions of dollars is not much/tiny or a lot.

>> the armaments manufacturers who actually control our society

> You can’t control society with 0.17% of US GDP!

That doesn't seem fair. The companies involved are involved in a lot more than nuclear weapons, as I guess you know. (see my last 2 links)

Thank you, am reading his Strategy in the Missile Age, which is surprisingly a very enjoyable read. Brodie was evidently a cultured guy and a good writer. There's quite a bit of history and philosophy, and the first 2 pages are entirely about Paradise Lost!

PDF: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/commercial_books/...

One can't be surprised that Rand Corporation, an entity created by the military-industrial complex to help it control journalists and politicians, would publish such a book.
That might explain the USA part of the arsenal, but it can't be the whole explanation because that would not work for USSR. And, since whatever was the reasons for USSR, it most likely also applied to USA as well, reducing the need to pin it all on commercial interests.
Thanks this is much more elegant than what I came up with.
Stalin was (justifiably) frightened by nuclear weapons. Any time between August 1945 and mid-1949, Truman could have picked up the phone and said "we've decided to step back from the brink". Stalin would have eagerly agreed. Instead, USA developed vastly more destructive fusion weapons, and the first unofficial act of newly created CIA intentionally leaked designs to the Russians. That's why their first functional weapon was a carbon copy of early American weapons.

Truman would later regret creating one of the several monsters that ate his soul [0], but he was clearly out of his depth from the moment that he learned of atomic weapons. None of the top military brass wanted to use the atomic bomb. [1] The reptiles knew what they were doing in 1944 when they replaced Henry Wallace with an easily controlled Missouri hick. Truman himself didn't know their precise plans, but he had to know he wasn't the man who should've gotten that job. He let ambition overrule propriety.

Of course, Truman isn't the only human to blame for the mess we've been in for 75 years. Most of the scientists who developed the bomb knew better than he did what the result would be. "MAD" is not an acceptable condition for human life. We endure it because some reptiles desired further enrichment. No good intentions paved their way to their current location.

Throughout our existence, USA's projections of the worst possible intentions on the part of other nations have driven our deepest depravities, to a far greater extent than the real situations we've faced.

[0] https://truthout.org/articles/trumans-true-warning-on-the-ci...

[1] https://www.thenation.com/article/world/why-the-us-really-bo...

Maybe because silos are an important target for the attacking side? So you want to have many in order to reduce the risk of being left without arms in case your enemy attacks first?
Absolute madness, you and your enemy will be dead anyway from the fallout and nuclear winter.
Yes, MADness. Because the attack entails utter destruction, it would be irrational to attack, so no one attacks.

Bernard Brodie, naval strategist, figured this all out as the inevitable endpoint of nuclear weapons in 1946.

People have been trying to get around it ever since, but there is no way around it. Disarm, and a handful of nukes rule the world. If armed, the only way to avoid war is to make it utterly irrational.

And offence has an apparently permanent advantage over defence with MIRVs, as it will cost more to shoot down a rocket than to launch it, so missile defence doesn’t work as a strategy to exit MAD.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Brodie_(military_str...

> And offence has an apparently permanent advantage over defence with MIRVs, as it will cost more to shoot down a rocket than to launch it, so missile defence doesn’t work as a strategy to exit MAD.

But not shooting a missile down is massively, massively more expensive. If the missile scare on Hawaii had been real and North Korea had launched a single nuclear missile and the US had shot it down, do you think anyone would have cared about the cost?

Even if it is, say, twice the cost to shoot down a missile as to launch it the US can afford more than twice the cost the Russians and much more than North Korea.

I think limited missile defence is sensible for dealing with accidental firings or countries with tiny stockpiles like North Korea.

But it isn’t 2x. Try 10-20x. Modern MIRV’s can have ten warheads, and it is also substantially more difficult to target a moving missile than to hit a launch silo. Tests so far have not been anywhere near the accuracy needed to confidently guarantee you could shoot down a first strength. You need 100% performance, they’re getting less than 50%, for ideal conditions.

The economics just don’t work with a 20x cost gap. What’s more the attempt to built a unilateral defence system would encourage a massive arms race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targe...

Not necessarily. I think the nuclear winder risk for an asymmetrical strike is largely overblown. If a country successfully take the capability of the other to respond, they could see few repercussions.

This drives the need to be able to respond.

The best way to destroy an enemy nuclear weapon is by hitting it with one of your nuclear weapons. Add on top of that your other strategic targets and a reserve, and the fact that their calculation is the same as yours, and you can see where this is going.
With weapons distributed amongst all USSR holdings this implies the US was willing to nuke everything from Poland to north Vietnam.
The US in fact did have a serious problem with nuclear warplan targeting during the Cold War - there was essentially never a reason you could give to take a target off the list, so the plan for a good deal of time was essentially something like "hit every single conceivable target several times" (to account for failed bombs or losses en route).

It was actually one of Dick Cheney's initiatives to create a process which would remove targets from the nuclear warplan's to get the number of weapons used down to a manageable number - and end the feedback of "oh no we've assigned all the weapons - we need more weapons in case there's more targets".

EDIT: A critical element with nuclear warplan's is that you don't have one bomb per target - you generally have several bombs per target via different delivery systems with different priorities, because the key element of MAD is survivability - there has to always be a guarantee in your adversary's mind that they cannot destroy enough capability to create a winning scenario for them.

There is even a case to be made that too much nuclear disarmament could create a less stable situation, because arsenals might deplete enough that an exchange might seem survivable.
Of course they would be. Nuking the USSR would involve resigning yourself to the murder of hundreds of millions. It also means accepting that the USSR will do whatever they can to retaliate with nukes.

In that context, you are already so resigned at killing others over your own safety, that hitting a few other countries is a no-brainer.

And the USSR was willing to nuke everything from Turkey to South Korea (going the long way).
Yes, that was the stated objective.
The doctrine was M.A.D. .. or mutually assured distruction[1].

I believe the (arguably crazy) idea was that the weapons wouldn't ever be used. The fact that each nuclear superpower has a similar amount of weapons assured that the equalibrium would stop the worst from happening.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

That page says "Although the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, the MAD doctrine continues to be applied."

I get the feeling that's not generally known. Isn't that kind of extremely weird? I've never seen discussion of it on HN, for example, or maybe what to do about the prospect of living indefinitely under the threat of MAD. With more countries with nuclear weapons all the time. Well, you read here about people not wanting to have kids because of global warming, but not because of that. Is it just too big a problem to even think about?

It's not generally known, particularly by the generation that was born at the tail end of the Cold War (like myself), and by people born later. We grew up without the fear of that particular flavor of Armageddon.

But MAD is still what keeps the world relatively peaceful. It also gives rise to certain paradoxes - like any attempt to create a better defense against nuclear weapons is also the biggest threat to mankind, because it risks breaking the MAD doctrine and thus inviting a nuclear first strike. For MAD to work, countries in their equivalence class (e.g. US, Russia and China are one class) need to be in lock step with their capabilities, so that no one can be struck without the attacker risking annihilation.

> But MAD is still what keeps the world relatively peaceful.

There seems a kind of anthropic principle here - it seems successful, but we wouldn't be here talking about it if it had gone terribly wrong, which has come very close to happening more than a few times, apparently.

The risk of that is >0, but the cost is...infinite. That doesn't seem obviously worth the gamble, to say the least.

I think it's less of an anthropic principle, and more the realization that it's the only stable equilibrium available once nuclear weapons become available.
I'd say it's generally known - everyone is aware of nukes and what nukes can do. The difference is they're considered much more of a known quantity these days: you can't use them, you don't use them, and you also can't fight a direct war with any country which has them. The idea of the "mad Russians" launching against the US has worn out, but watch what happens when you talk about Iran or North Korea having them.

What's more worrying is that most nuclear policy in the US was centered around condensing launch authority solely with the President of the United States - there's a heck of a lot of assumption that that person is a sane, rational elder statesmen type.

That MAD continues didn't seem that known on HN earlier today. (I didn't know it either.) When I wrote the GP comment, it had half a dozen sibling comments from different people, now all deleted, talking about MAD in the past tense, as a crazy thing that was believed in long ago.
the problem with MAD is it falls apart when you cross religious extremism with nuclear weapons. It's not rational to douse school girls in acid on their way to school but religious extremism turns it into reality.
The AD - Assured Destruction - part works just fine. Irrational actors don't assemble world ending arsenals (after all if you think you should rush to your death, why not launch when you have 1, given that you're most likely in a "use it or lose it" situation).

Even in your cited example - the people who do this sort of thing attack those who can't fight back. They are never in any danger of being immediately shot dead after.

While yes suicide bombers exist, this is more a question of arms proliferation and control then an indictment of the ineffectiveness of MAD or the general strategic reality of nuclear weapons. And the situations under which non-state actors have them are still a policing rather then political concern - North Korea or Iran leaking a bomb to another entity that then detonates it is the surest possible way that both those states will be dismantled by NATO, since MAD does apply there: proof that you represent an uncontrolled risk of nuclear attack invites conventional or nuclear annihilation, regardless of the mechanism. Civilian casualties go out the window when you have already suffered some.

The obvious - but incredibly difficult to implement - solution is to achieve world peace, through mutual respect, tolerance and trust amongst nations. A lot of people seem to have abandoned that as a goal, in favor of being contented with a perpetual uneasy standoff.

It's a tough goal - perhaps the hardest there has ever been - but it's not impossible.

I would consider world peace "through mutual respect, tolerance and trust amongst nations" as inherently impossible for homo sapiens as we are.

A world peace might be plausible through a single world government that can enforce a world peace and resolution of diverging interests and conflicts without war, i.e. with some "policing" mechanism instead of relying on people not escalating through sheer goodwill. That is possible - world peace based on the expectation that any potential violators of that world peace would face retaliation and lose in that conflict. Si vis pacem, para bellum - that can work, if it can be established.

Or, alternatively, a world peace through mutual respect and tolerance may happen if at some time in future our civilization consists of substantially altered individuals - genetic alteration, chemical brainwashing, computerized circuits in brains, something that changes the way our motivation works on a fundamental level - but not for people as we are.

Otherwise, as long as any people and groups of people have unmet desires (not merely needs) and diverging interests, conflicts will happen, and as long as violence is a practical option for achieving goals (i.e. there's not a threat/expectation of successful powerful resistance to that violence) it will be considered and used if mere threat of that violence isn't sufficient.

The problem with MAD is that it only works with logical people. Once you include religious fanatics then they don't fear the destruction, in their warped sense of reality their death just takes them to the next spiritual level (or whatever claptrap they preach). So they dont care if they are destroyed as long as their enemy is destroyed also. Because their enemy is some sort of heretic/unbeliever they will not be saved, whilst their people will all live happily in heaven because their god excuses genocide if you do it in HIS name.
MAD keeps India from eliminating Pakistan, or China from eliminating India, or any of the Arab states vs Israel, or NK vs USA. MAD is a core doctrine of most countries' defences even today. It's the reason Iran wants to obtain them ASAP.
For both sides, the most important job for the nukes was counter-force, that is, blowing up the enemy nukes. Both sides understood this, so they deployed their own nukes so sparsely that you generally need one to take out one, and since they still expected to lose a lot of them, they built spares.
to me, it was the invention of SLBMs that truly but the concept of a first-strike advantage to bed. With subs under the water in the world's oceans armed with dozes of missiles each armed with multiple warheads the concept of taking out your enemy before they can retaliate is gone.

IMO, if MAD fails it will be an accident that triggers a run away chain of events leading to nuclear war. We've come close many many times to total nuclear war due to miscommunication, simulation errors, procedural errors, etc.

It'll kill the whole world - eventually, but for an effective first or second strike you want to take out the enemy as fast as possible, instead of wait for the fallout and climate change to take over.

Mind you, a single nuke on e.g. DC or NY would cripple the country already, especially if there's minimal warning.

It doesn't have anything to do with efficiency. It's a pissing contest. You want the largest number because it gives you bragging rights.
These people and their logic started WW1 and WW2. The only thing keeping them abay is that with even conventional warfare, you end up with Syria.
Power begets more power.
Russia invented the largest nuke ever and are still innovating in the space with the new Satan 2 missile that can pretty much wipe out the eastern seaboard. So America isn't the only homicidal maniac. Putin gives us a run for our money.

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