- tuatoruThey are getting cheap electricity from PV and batteries and cheap air conditioners to run on the electricity.
- If there is any technological progress, people in 3000 will be so much wealthier than we are today that fixing any problems arising from climate change will be trivially easy for them.
That is, if there are any people in 3000. Nuclear war is still the number one problem. AI is a candidate for number two right now; the next decade should clarify things.
- Everyone is a climate skeptic.
"To know, and not yet to do, is not to know" - Aristotle.
Everyone still flies on planes. Ceasing burning kerosene is the easiest possible thing you could do to reduce your climate impact, but no-one does it.
Everyone hates being called out on it, but it is true. No-one really cares, because no-one is prepared to make a socially costly signal, costly in prestige or relationships or group membership. It's all posturing.
- Down from 700,000. Not good news.
- Exactly. If the political class no longer needs healthy, literate soldiers and workers, it's going to stop paying for them.
- This time actually is different, though.
If everything that a human can do, a robot can do better and cheaper, then humans are completely shut out of the production function. Humans have a minimum level of consumption that they need to stay alive whether or not they earn a wage; robots do not.
Since most humans live off wages which they get from work, they are then shut out of life. The only humans left alive are those who fund their consumption from capital rents.
- Idle power and sleep power are important for embedded applications.
- I have seen AI improve the quality and velocity of my wife's policy analysis dramatically.
She doesn't like using Claude, but she accepts the necessity of doing so, and it reduces 3-month projects to 2-week projects. Claude is an excellent debating partner.
Crypto? Blockchain? No-one sceptical could ever see the point of either, unless and until their transaction costs were less than that of cash. That... has not happened, to put it mildly.
These things are NOT the same.
- AI as normal technology take.
- Maybe have your children from 18 to 27, when it is safest.
- Wow, 2022? Such age, many longevity.
- > It’s a bit like trying to drive faster on a congested motorway.
> The solution is Continuous Delivery – being able to reliably and safely ship to production in tiny chunks, daily or even multiple times a day – one feature, one bug fix at a time. Not having to batch work up because testing and deployment have such a large overhead.
"Just one more lane, bro; that'll fix it."
- Yeah, no. It'll have vanished next year.
- This seems like one of those "hmmm, that's odd" moments that could lead to a scientific breakthrough.
- It surprises me that economists are not advocating that Europe set up special economic zones, as have been tried in less-developed countries to some success. Hong Kong could be considered the Ur-SEZ.
On reflection it is not surprising that SEZs have not been tried. They would be too embarassing to Europe's political class.
- This seems like an argument from incredulity, and also static-world fallacy.
People are not thinking about the trend in AI. How good were AIs three years ago? How good are they now? How good will they be in another three years?
Kelsey Piper's analogy is good. How much smarter is a teacher than a room full of kindergartners? Who gets whom to do their bidding?
- A future we didn't quite make it into.
- PIC is short for PICTURE, which was the original form of the keyword. Picture the number printed this way.
Edit: the numbers in parentheses are repeats. PIC 9(9) means up to 9 digits in the printed representation of the value stored in the variable that has this PIC.
- Microsoft's moat and cash cow is Active Directory.
If corps ever stop needing that, MS will be in trouble. Until then, few worries. They can play at following fads (not that I think AI is a fad) and not worry about execution.
- It takes companies a long time to reorganise processes. Especially in ways that reduce headount, because manager status is tied to count of reports.
This study is far too soon. In 2030, if nothing changes meanwhile, we might know the effect of AI as we have it now in 2025 on employment.