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tndl
Joined 523 karma
Doing weather balloon stuff at https://sorcerer.earth
- tndlThese models actually outperform traditional methods on many fronts, including accuracy a lot of the time. They are technically generative AI models, but they're definitely not LLMs.
- Really exciting to see NOAA finally make some progress on this front, but the AIGFS suite likely won't outperform ECMWF's AIFS suite any time soon. The underlying architecture between AIFS and GraphCast/AIGFS is pretty similar (both GNNs), so there won't likely be a model-level improvement. And most of ECMWF's edge lies in its superior 4DVar data assimilation process. AIGFS is still being initialized on NOAA's hybrid 4DEnVar assimilation process as far as I understand it, which is still not as good as straight up 4DVar unfortunately.
- That seems to be the case from what I've heard.
- 53 points
- Things are changing quickly in this area. Several projects/companies working on AI data assimilation (an alternative route to creating analysis data like ERA5)[0].
Also a lot of companies working on the data collection side, replacing/augmenting government data collection. Spire's an example of this in the space domain, and Windborne and Sorcerer (my company) do weather balloons.
[0]: E.g. Brightband's AIDA (https://www.brightband.com/blog/aida/) and Project Aardvark (https://www.turing.ac.uk/blog/project-aardvark-reimagining-a...)
- 27 points
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- Very interesting, I'd love to hear more about it! In short, yes, we plan to do descents near urban areas if there's a route where we can go down to a safe height and stay away from any airspace. What cities are you looking at right now?
- Send us an email! team@sorcerer.earth
- One of the first ideas we explored was putting an electrolyzer on the balloon to replenish hydrogen over time. Unfortunately right now, for balloons our size and power budget it's just not feasible. And actually, we can get a pretty low leakage rate with our materials which lets us stay aloft for a really long time, but eventually the UV degradation becomes to extreme.
- We're actually just going to have kids launch our balloons, it's no problem:
A person who is 6 years of age or younger who intentionally releases, organizes the release of, or intentionally causes to be released balloons as prohibited by s. 379.233 does not violate subsection (4) and is not. subject to the penalties specified in subparagraph 1. - I don’t know much about WAPS at all, but generally speaking, we’re only interested in doing weather sensing. As of now, we’re not planning to license the vehicle at all. And generally speaking our platform doesn’t work for payloads that are heavier than ~0.25lb and have more than minimal power requirements.
- This might be the coolest use case I’ve heard suggested. We’re not quite at the level where all of this is user friendly enough, but let’s catch up in 9-12 months
- Not yet, but keep an eye on https://www.hackerneue.com/jobs
- Reach out if you think we could help at all :)
- What's the project? Maybe we can help!
> Can I ask how you handled the regulatory aspect of launching from urban areas in SF? I can imagine the FAA would have given you some trouble?
We actually fall under a weather balloon exemption to the normal FAA rules for unmanned balloon flights. Here’s a quick rundown of the relevant rules and regulations (Part 101.1) for weather balloon flights in the U.S. Our balloons fully comply with all of these:
- Any on-board cellular tracking devices must be set to Airplane mode before takeoff (we don't have any cellular) - Each individual payload box/package must weigh less than 6 pounds (ours is <250g)
- If a payload has a weight-to-size ratio exceeding 3.0 ounces per square inch, it must weigh less than 4 pounds.
- If multiple payloads are carried by a single balloon, their combined weight must be under 12 pounds.- Calculation: Divide the total payload weight in ounces by the area of its smallest face in square inches.- The string connecting the payload to the balloon must break under an impact force of no more than 50 pounds (our string is 30g)
- It’s prohibited to design or operate an unmanned free balloon in a way that poses a hazard to people or property.
- Dropping objects from the balloon that could endanger people or property is not allowed.
We don't have to notify the FAA about our operations as long as we meet these criteria. To be super safe, we don't launch near airports or other busy areas.
- That's the goal. We're all from Florida, so the possibility of reducing the damage caused by hurricanes was a big reason we started the company in the first place.
Our balloons are actually cheap and steerable enough that we plan to fly them into TS/Hurricanes to get data way out in the Atlantic, farther than hurricane hunters can operate.