- > Whether one is allowed to pose some particular questions is a political topic though!
"This is *NOT REMOTELY* a controversial opinion except on Weird Far Left Twitter 2017" doesn't sound like a question.
- > From the perspective of a pre-abolitionist society, it evidently was, but that's not a political issue you're gonna have to deal with in 2025. Consider yourself lucky.
...do you not also consider yourself lucky about this? Weird phrasing.
- Clicking on a random link:
> It doesn't help that all males currently under the age of 40 were raised to be supercucks
https://x.com/Jonathan_Blow/status/1854708962462982465
Dear lord, yeah, this is why I completely tuned him out years ago. Somewhat ironically it's the Blow fans in this thread that are cherry picking his comments. He's way too online so says things like this all the time, and it's the fans that are in here demanding a smoking gun comment that somehow proves he's awful rather than telling him "sometimes it's ok to stfu" to comments like this that enable and echo chamber him.
And I say this as a fan of Braid and The Witness (at least of the first couple of layers of puzzles...as you go deeper, just like with Braid, you find more and more self-indulgent windbaggery that should have been on the cutting room floor).
- > I prefer my yearly company expectations to be quantifiable with clear metrics.
lol, yes, annual tech perf reviews. Known for clear and quantifiable metrics that are in no way based on squishy realities.
- Because it's silly to rely on hard to read hacks when you could just add an if() function.
- > I can understand skepticism, notably from a woman I know that had many unwanted bleeding and it seems she was not alone : https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12407584
From that study:
> Conclusions
> The availability of COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with a change in incidence of medically attended abnormal uterine bleeding in our population of over 79,000 female patients of reproductive age. Additionally, among 2,717 patients with abnormal uterine bleeding diagnoses in the period following COVID-19 vaccine availability, receipt of the vaccine was not associated with greater bleeding severity.
- > That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.
We don't actually know who at the OBPV did the review (Prasad only referred to the results coming from "the team") and the causal ranking they used included any case where causality was subjectively rated between "certain" and "possible/likely".
We also know that two orders of magnitude more children died from covid than that, and we have strong studies suggesting that myocarditis from covid is both more common and more severe than the observed cases tied to the covid vaccines, two inconvenient stances that Prasad waves away as insufficiently studied, even as he bases his entire position on a subjective review of something by someone, and doesn't bother filling in those blanks.
> If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown
He beclowns himself all the time. He himself walked back the Tylenol claim after convincing Trump to talk about it so publicly and standing by him while he did it. Clearly he's not bothered by it.
- > Blame NYTimes for leaking the internal memo.
Blame them for what, exactly?
We have no information about how highly motivated anti-vaxxers in positions of power over the FDA arrived at this conclusion except "the team has performed an initial analysis"[1]. That's literally it. Your claim that "FDA career scientists" conducted the follow-up can't even be based on this flimsy a statement. Moreover, these deaths have already been investigated by FDA career scientists and found these conclusions unwarranted.
Prasad spends the rest of the memo politically grandstanding (including claiming it was the FDA commissioner that was the hero here, forcing this issue, not FDA career scientists) and dismissing any objections to very obvious arguments against his claim (that have been made and published multiple times over the past five years) without any evidence, while providing no evidence of his own, in a memo addressing FDA career scientists.
Seriously, everyone should go read his memo. It's basically just a shitty antivax substack post, yet will apparently be FDA policy going forward. Another win for meritocracy.
> The detailed FDA analysis still isn't public. That's exactly why we should demand it instead of dismissing the claim.
The only "claim" here just sounds more official because RFKjr got a bunch of his best antivax buddies to be in charge of the FDA (same with the ACIP). There's no way to even consider it without evidence, so there's nothing to dismiss. Come back when you have something real.
- > If you add in the 1000$ that treasury plans to invest starting next year, that is $1250
This is largely separate from your point, which is good, but the $250 is for kids that won't get the $1000. The $1000 only goes to kids born between 2025 and 2028.
- > Is there data showing that government programs are more effective than philanthropic programs?
define "more effective"
- > Rather: WHATWG was founded because the companies developing browsers (in particular Google) believed that what the W3C was working on for XHTML 2.0 was too academic, and went into a different direction than their (i.e. in particular Google's) vision for the web.
Mozilla, Opera and Apple. Google didn't have a browser then, hadn't even made the main hires who would start developing Chrome yet and hixie was still at Opera.
- > The amount of goal post shifting is so amusing to see
Can you be specific about the goal posts being shifted? Like the specific comments you're referring to here. Maybe I'm just falling for the bait, but non specific claims like this seem designed just to annoy while having nothing specific to converse about.
I got to the end of your comment and counting all the claims you discounted, the only goal post I see left is that people aren't using a sufficiently excited tone while sifting fact from hype? A lot of us follow this work pretty closely and don't feel the need to start every post with "there is no need for excitement to abate, still exciting! but...".
> I am not saying any of this means we get AGI or something or even if we continue to see improvements. We can still appreciate things. It doesn't need to be a binary.
You'll note, however, that the hype guys happily include statements like "Vibe proving is here" in their posts with no nuance, all binary. Why not call them out?
- Is your argument that Terence Tao says it was a consequence from a known result and he categorizes it as low hanging fruit, but to you it feels like one of those things that's only obvious in retrospect after it's explained to you, and without "evidence" of Tao's claim, you're going to go with your vibes?
What exactly would constitute evidence?
- The overhyped tweet from the robinhood guy raising money for his AI startup is nicely brought into better perspective by Thomas Bloom (including that #124 is not from the cited paper, "Complete sequences of sets of integer powers "/BEGL96):
> This is a nice solution, and impressive to be found by AI, although the proof is (in hindsight) very simple, and the surprising thing is that Erdos missed it. But there is definitely precedent for Erdos missing easy solutions!
> Also this is not the problem as posed in that paper
> That paper asks a harder version of this problem. The problem which has been solved was asked by Erdos in a couple of later papers.
> One also needs to be careful about saying things like 'open for 30 years'. This does not mean it has resisted 30 years of efforts to solve it! Many Erdos problems (including this one) have just been forgotten about it, and nobody has seriously tried to solve it.[1]
And, indeed, Boris Alexeev (who ran the problem) agrees:
> My summary is that Aristotle solved "a" version of this problem (indeed, with an olympiad-style proof), but not "the" version.
> I agree that the [BEGL96] problem is still open (for now!), and your plan to keep this problem open by changing the statement is reasonable. Alternatively, one could add another problem and link them. I have no preference.[2]
Not to rain on the parade out of spite, it's just that this is neat, but not like, unusually neat compared to the last few months.
[1] https://twitter.com/thomasfbloom/status/1995083348201586965
[2] https://www.erdosproblems.com/forum/thread/124#post-1899
- > The demo at the top has some bad noise issues when the light is in small gaps, at least on my phone (which I don't think the article acknowledges).
Right at the end:
> The random jitter ensures that pixels next to each other don’t end up in the same band. This makes the result a little grainy which isn’t great. But I think looks better than banding… This is an aspect of the demo that I’m still not satisfied with, so if you have ideas for how to improve it please tell me!
- > In medicine, we're already seeing productivity gains from AI charting leading to an expectation that providers will see more patients per hour.
And not, of course, an expectation of more minutes of contact per patient, which would be the better outcome optimization for both provider and patient. Gotta pump those numbers until everyone but the execs are an assembly line worker in activity and pay.
- > You are correct it is possible to upload avif files into Google Photo. But you lose the view and of course the thumbnail.
I'm not sure what you mean. They appear to act like any other photo in the interface. You can view them and they're visible in the thumbnail view, but maybe I'm misinterpreting what you mean?
- > Even Google photo does not support avif
I have no previous first-hand knowledge of this, but I vaguely remember discussions of avif in google photos from reddit a while back so FWIW I just tried uploading some avif photos and it handled them just fine.
Listed as avif in file info, downloads as the original file, though inspecting the network in the web frontend, it serves versions of it as jpg and webp, so there's obviously still transcoding going on.
I'm not sure when they added support, the consumer documentation seem to be more landing site than docs unless I'm completely missing the right page, but the API docs list avif support[1], and according to the way back machine, "AVIF" was added to that page some time between August and November 2023.
[1] https://developers.google.com/photos/library/guides/upload-m...
- Their standards position is still neutral; what switched a year ago was that they said they would be open to shipping an implementation that met their requirements. The tracking bug hasn't been updated[2] The patches you mention are still part of the intent to prototype (behind a flag), similar to the earlier implementation that was removed in Chrome.
They're looking at the same signals as Chrome of a format that's actually getting use, has a memory safe implementation, and that will stick around for decades to justify adding it to the web platform, all of which seem more and more positive since 2022.
Well, you "haven't read literature on the topic"[1] so maybe leave the speculation at the door or go out and read some literature to cite rather than presenting "ideas [you]'ve picked up that [you] can agree with" as "established"?
[1] https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=46315540