2
points
kieranmaine
Joined 1,444 karma
- From article https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-06-25-how-do-vaccines-reduce-...
> Recent studies have shown convincingly that vaccines against shingles (Herpes zoster) reduce the risk of dementia. The shingles vaccine now in widespread use (Shingrix) has more of an effect than the previous one (Zostavax). A key difference between these vaccines is that Shingrix contains an ‘adjuvant’, an ingredient designed to enhance the vaccine’s effect. It is therefore possible that the adjuvant contributes to Shingrix’ greater effect than Zostavax on reducing dementia.
Link to study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-025-01172-3
I don't know if this study changes the conclusion that Shingrix is more affective than Zostavax.
- From https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-06-25-how-do-vaccines-reduce-...
> The shingles vaccine now in widespread use (Shingrix) has more of an effect than the previous one (Zostavax). A key difference between these vaccines is that Shingrix contains an ‘adjuvant’, an ingredient designed to enhance the vaccine’s effect. It is therefore possible that the adjuvant contributes to Shingrix’ greater effect than Zostavax on reducing dementia.
- > The window quibble, the incubator gap, and the replication protocol do not touch the central, uncontested fact that chance contamination plus observational curiosity gave medicine its first antibiotic.
This is the same conclusion as the article. IMO, the importance of challenging the myth is that it has hisotrically taken precendence over your (and the article's) conclusion.
FTA
> Fleming’s 1929 penicillin paper may have been written as a linear process, but that’s almost certainly not how the discovery occurred. And by eliminating these complicated twists and turns, Fleming inadvertently obscured what may be one of the most important lessons in scientific history: how combining a meticulous research program with the openness to branch out into new directions led him to Nobel Prize-winning success. Neither rigid plans nor the winds of chance are enough on their own; discovery requires both.
- The system in the article works alongside gas and wood chips heating, so there are other options in place if the sand battery cannot be "charged".
FTA:
> The project will cut fossil-based emissions in the Vääksy district heating network by around 60% each year, by reducing natural gas use bu 80% and also decreasing wood chip consumption.
- My understanding is there is less of a need for massive grid upgrades in this model due to the use of storage. Rather than having to be able to distribute peak loads from solar, requiring a larger connection, you can smooth out the supply and distribute an even amount throughout the day, using a smaller connection.
The section "1.1.3 Bringing large savings on grid expansions" [1] has a good explanation.
1. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e...
- The following isn't a grid problem (more of a demand issue), but maybe they're referring to this:
> But 45 percent of Pakistanis live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, putting solar panel systems well beyond their reach. The pool of customers for the national grid has gotten smaller and poorer, and the costs of financing old coal-powered plants have increasingly been passed on to those who can least afford it. [1]
1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-pakistan-s-solar-en...
- Thanks for the answers. I used to work for a EV smart charging company (Kaluza) that ran a V2G trial. V2G was financial success for the users, but I always thought the wall box was a potential blocker. I don't think the 2kW output is a big issue as the customer could still reduce there load when required, but the elimination of a wall box makes onboarding much easier.
As long as the inverter can also provide charging this definitely has some potential.
- Very interesting - I did not know this was possible. A few questions:
1. Does the solar inverter do away with the need for a V2G or V2H unit?
2. What are the limitations vs a dedicated V2G/H unit?
3. Is generator input on your solar inverter a common feature across inverters?
- I only found out about the WELLBY due to this report. I don't have the time or expertise to evaluate it, so I'm interested in why you find it "iffy"?
- > How does investing in new forms of energy help when old one is not decreasing?
In relation to electricity this is not the case for H1 2025, as shown in the article "Solar and wind growth exceeded global demand growth in the first half of 2025" [1]
> ...so maybe it should not?
Fair point.
1. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-...
- You have to weigh up the negatives with the positives and look at trends. AI can gave you a more exhaustive list of positive developments, but some I've noticed:
* "FERC: Solar + wind made up 91% of new US power generating capacity in H1 2025" [1] - The rollback of the IRA will reduce the speed of the US transition.
* "Solar and wind growth exceeded global demand growth in the first half of 2025" [2]
* Perovskite solar panels could lead to even lower solar costs [3]
There's also increased investment in nuclear, exicting geothermal advances (eg. Fervo Energy), increasing EV sales, a massive expansion of battery storage, zero emissions concrete (https://sublime-systems.com/). There are lots of positive developments, so I'd recommend learning more about them to offset your current fears and introduce some hope.
1. https://electrek.co/2025/09/03/ferc-solar-wind-91-percent-ne...
2. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-...
3. https://www.ft.com/content/a5095373-1762-41cd-a078-af533e264...
- Based on https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... France wasn't shielded from the increase gas prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
OTOH Finland has benefited from it's mix of mostly nuclear, hydro, wind.
- > It is still nowhere enough. It is barely the capacity to support few hours of consumption of the European grid.
You just need to move the excess to times of high demand.
> Most of the solar production will go wasted.
Germany saw renewable curtailments (including wind) of 3.5% in 2024. I can only find reports it will reach 10% by 2030 in Germany and 10% in the EU. I would define "Most" as 50%+.
> That means that the price of the solar production will tank and go negative during most of the spring-summer period. And that is terrible as far as ROI on the production systems are concerned.
This depends on the market. The UK guarantees a price for renewables that have a Contract for Difference (CfD), so they're unaffected. I don't know much about the other European markets, so this might happen.
Any developer will account for this though, so money will flow out of renewables and into storage if there are serious issues around over capacity - unless you have schemes like the UK's CfD.
Finally, I disagree with your prediction
> we might doom the ROI of an entire industry for the decades to come
You have plenty of price signals in energy markets so I can't see a scenario where there's a complete misallocation of resources into renewablews and not storage. In addition investment predictions for renewables and storage are healthy and not of an industry in distress.
- Apologies, the 2029 figure was the annual install amount. Total estimated installed amount is 400 GWh. Solar Power Europe says "780 GWh by 2030 to fully support the transition".
From the page[1]:
> By 2029, the report anticipates a sixfold increase to nearly 120 GWh, driving total capacity to 400 GWh (EU-27: 334 GWh). However, this remains far below the levels required to meet flexibility needs in a renewable-driven energy system. According to our Mission Solar 2040 study, EU-27 BESS capacity must reach 780 GWh by 2030 to fully support the transition.
This is also only up to 2029. Battery prices are dropping and the amount of batteries being manufactured is increasing, so I don't agree the continued installation of solar is a big problem.
1. https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press-releases/new-report-e...
- To provide some numbers on the storage side of things. On European battery storage [1]:
* 2024 - 21.9 GWh installed.
* 2025 - 29.7 GWh predicted to be installed.
* 2029 - Between 66.6 GWh and 183 GWh to be installed for 2029. Total capacity estimated to be 400 GWh.
The UK also recently received applications for 52.6 GW of storage Long Duration Energy Storage cap and floor scheme [2]. LDES in this context is classed as 8hrs or greater. Seasonal storage is not included.
I don't know if this sufficiently plugs the gaps, but it does show a large increase in installed battery storage, which appears to be accelerating.
Edit: Include total capacity in 2029 figure.
1. https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press-releases/new-report-e...
2. https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-09/LDES%20...
- > A few local small-scale demonstration projects don't tell us much about the difficulties of scaling up by orders of magnitude.
The UK is forging ahead with large scale battery storage projects. I have not done the math, but I assume there is a sound economic case in order for these projects to receive this level of investment.
Edit: Here's some more data on revenue for battery storage in the UK [3]
[1] https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/battery-storage/statera-u...
[2] https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/battery-storage/fidra-ene...
[3] https://modoenergy.com/research/gb-research-roundup-january-...
- Demand Side Response can be enabled by batteries and can save money.
For example, the OVO Charge Anytime tariff provides EV charging at just 7p kWh [1]. Average kWh cost is 26.35p/kWh[2]. From the linked case study:
> £7.7m/€9m total customer savings
Once Vehicle-to-Home and Vehicle-to-Grid is more widespread the savings will be even greater [3].
1. https://info.kaluza.com/hubfs/Charge%20Anytime%20EU%202024-0...
2. https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-electricity-kwh-uk
3. https://info.kaluza.com/hubfs/What%E2%80%99s%20next%20for%20...
- > I guess Im more skeptical, especially when this is coming from a single purpose advocacy group
I agree it's unlikely you'll just have solar + batteries used just for LV. However, taking a look at the adoption of storage in California and Texas, I think it's safe to assume an upwards trajectory for solar + batteries [1].
I didn't know much about Nevada's electricity generation, but based on current data [1] there are enough alternative sources to support a sizeable increase in solar generation.
Still, I don't know how much solar will be deployed and I hope nuclear does drop in price in order to speed up the energy transistion. It's exciting to see so many great technological leaps in our lifetimes.
Finally, a shout out to geothermal, which looks very promising. I recommend listening to "Catching up with enhanced geothermal " - https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal.
1. https://www.gridstatus.io/live/caiso?date=2025-09-14
2. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2...
- The report mentions this:
> Las Vegas can reach 97% of the way to 1 GW constant supply.
My take away from the report is not that 24/365 is achieveable everywhere, but how solar + batteries is rapidly dropping in price and is now cheaper with other forms of generation, which will result in solar + batteries making up the majority of generation on the grid.
> In a sunny city like Las Vegas, the estimated Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) at this 97% benchmark is $104/MWh. This is already 22% lower than the $132/MWh estimate based on global average capital costs of solar and battery a year earlier. It is also more cost-effective than coal in many regions ($118/MWh) and far cheaper than nuclear ($182/MWh).
- > It's really a question that should be directed at renewables: "If renewables are so cheap and fast to deploy, how come 39 years after Chernobyl, Germany still cannot get below France in CO2 emission?"
Because renewables and storage have only been produced at the scale and price required to achieve this for the last 5 years. [1]
The following article "Solar electricity every hour of every day is here and it changes everything"[2] is an interesting demonstration of how solar + batteries is pushing other generation sources to the periphery in most of the world.
Edit: Here is some more data for Brazil and the UK showing a large increase in solar over the last 5 years [3][4]
1. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-power-continu...
2. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e...
3. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-and-solar-gene...
4.https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/a-record-year-for-b...
- > Even places like Australia, which are naturally blessed in terms of wind and sun prevalence, are not able to divest from large scale coal power plants.
This is not true.
In Australia Coal generation peaked at 179135 GWh in 2008 and was down to 126475 GWh in 2024 [1].
The state of Southern Australia generated 71.9% of it's electricity with renewables and only used batteries for 1.1% of generation. It replaced it's coal generation with gas generation, and gas generation is declining.
1. https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&...
2. https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=all...
- This doesn't quite cover what you're looking for but I think a previous survey led with a question that mentioned uploading ID - https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/202....
I can't find the survey it's entirety, but I think the above question was followed by (this is based on the number at the end of the URL, which I'm guessing is quesiton order) - https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/202...
- One more thing to throw into the mix. The treatment of ADHD might be helping:
"ADHD medication still reduces risks, but benefits have weakened over time"
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/...
- I listened to a podcast titled "Taming the hydrogen hype" [1] that suggests things like nuclear power plants and wind turbines don't follow the same cost reductions as solar and batteries because they can't be fitted in a shipping container:
> So, most industrial things have big economies of scale, right? There's this imaginary world where, "Oh, I'm going to shrink down the cost, but the cost per unit is also going to go down." That requires magical thinking. It requires making it so small that you can make it in a factory and ship it in a shipping container.
Based on what I read on the site the turbine components can be transported using normal lorries. However, it would be interested to know:
1. If they can be shrunk even further and be transported in a container.
2. Would this help reduce costs.
1. https://open.substack.com/pub/davidroberts/p/taming-the-hydr...
- UK BEV + PHEV cars make up 28.9% registrations for March 2025.
For March:
BEV registrations up from 48,388 in 2024, to 69,313 in 2025.
PHEV registrations up from 24,517 in 2024, to 33,815 in 2025.
- A trial in the UK resulted in customers earning up to £725/year [1]. With increased renewables on the grid leading to increased flutucations in the wholesale price of electricity, providing V2G/V2H will further reduce a customer's electricity bill on top of the savings offered by smart charging eg. Charge Anytime Tariff is 7p per kWh for EV charging [2] vs 27p kWh average Apr - Jun 2025 [3].
1. https://www.kaluza.com/case-studies/case-study-kaluza-enable...
2. https://www.ovoenergy.com/electric-cars/charge-anytime
3. https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-electricity-kwh-uk
- For some figures on demand reponse Kraken energy manage devices across Europe and the US:
"And today, to give you the exact numbers, we manage close to 400,000 devices in real time. That's about 1.6 gigawatt of power that can be turned up or down at any moment in time and space. And that's where consumer devices become really powerful." [1]
1. https://www.volts.wtf/p/making-sure-smart-devices-can-talk
- Don't forget retaliatory tariffs impacting exporters. See
From "Donald Trump’s tariffs will bring ‘nothing but pain’ to rural America, farmers say - " https://www.ft.com/content/ba4569d3-3c54-47d9-90af-125751434...
"Trump’s last trade war, with China in 2018...led to $27bn in losses for US agriculture, according to estimates by farming groups..farms received as much as $23bn in compensation from the federal government"
I think this is a false dawn. EV sales in Germany have rebounded strongly after the removal of subsidies [1].
"Germany was the largest contributor, with more than 434,600 new EV registrations and one of the strongest growth rates in the bloc, up 39.4% year-on-year"
EU EV sales are up in 2025 in comparison with 2024 [1]
"Battery electric vehicles accounted for 16.4% of newly registered cars in the EU during the first ten months of 2025, according to figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). That compares with 13.2% over the same period in 2024."
1. https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/11/25/the-electric-tr... 2. https://ev-database.org/uk/#group=vehicle-group&av-1=1&av-23...