23
points
kalap_ur
Joined 35 karma
- kalap_ur parentI paid $150 for a 64GB DDR5 in Jan 2025. That is today $830 representing 5.5x.
- I think this analysis has little to say. What would be important to know how those $ are being spent, not where they are collected from. We do not know how those $ are being spent.
1. Doctors, Nurses, Administration (management and field administration), other. We need to know total employment and total salaries (including private practices).
2. OTC, prescription and hospital administered drugs (separated for acute, such as ER, and chronic, such as inpatient and elective surgery). We need to know how much is being spent on these, which is _potentially_ one of the culprits of large discrepancy between US healthcare vs European healthcare. What would be great to have these by large cohorts of population (<20; 20-65; 66-85; 85<) and maybe the top 5 buckets (i am guessing: cardiovascular - chronic; diabetes; accidents; hospice; dialysis)
3. Facility expenses (rent, maintenance, utilities, other contractor)
4. Other
Without these, very hard to opine reasonably on the state of affairs. And to be fair, I suspect there is a reason why proper expense breakdowns are not available.
- There is no need. The personnel cost multiplier is 3.6x, the non-acute drug multiplier is 6.25x and the "something else" multiplier 77x. So we can debate that there are ~4x more people in the US and CoL is higher maybe by 0.5x turns, but there is no debate that the 77x shows something is awfully wrong.
My bet is the private insurance because we dont have transparent data on how much does the same procedure (broken down by personnel (doctor, nurse, admin), implied equipment amortization, rent, drugs) cost with and without insurance.
I could totally imagine that there are plus personnel expenses buried within the "something else", or acute drug prices, which are administered during an emergency at a hospital. But we don't know, because healthcare spending is a black box in the US.
- They sign the purchase order on 1/1/26. AMD issues invoice to be paid in 30 days, that is 2/1/26. OpenAI triggers warrant and informs AMD on 1/2/26. OpenAI receives shares on 1/4/26. On 1/5/26 OpenAI and AMD announce the GPU purchase deal. On 1/30/26 OpenAI sells its shares in AMD. From proceeds, OpenAI pays AMD on 2/1/26. Thus, AMD financed OpenAI's GPU purchase via AMD's shares.
- I did a calculation once. US spends $4.9T on healthcare: $2T on personnel, $500B on non-acute drugs (ie OTC + prescribed) and $2.4T on something else. Germany spends $550B on healthcare: $430B on personnel, $80B on non-acute drugs and $31B on something else. My guess is that the "something else", which is non transparent, is actually private insurance jacking prices up.
- I mean, to be fair, Google's scam of how much GBs you have is very annoying and downright scandalous.
I had 16.5GB or so used up so it was flashing red. When paid for Gemini, my total space jumped to 2TB and my usage dropped to 12GB. Disgusting. So might as well switch to fastmail. Not sure.
- Likely not true re adoption. According to McKinsey November 2024 12% of employees in the US used AI for >30% of their daily tasks. I saw another research early this summer, it said that 40% of employees use AI. Adoption is already pretty relevant. The real question is: number of people x token requirement of their daily tasks equals how many tokens, and where are we there. Based on McK, we possibly around 17% unless remaining 50% of tasks requires just way more complexity, because then that would obviously mean the incremental tasks require maybe exponentially more tokens and then penetration will be indeed low. But for this we need to know total token need of daily tasks of average office worker.
- I just heard a thesis that there is no bubble unless there is debt in it. Currently mostly internal funds were used for increasing capex. More recently started we seeing circularity (NVDA -> OpenAI -> MSFT -> NVDA), thus this is less relevant so far yet. Especially as around ~70% of data center is viewed to be GPU, so NVDA putting down $100B, that essentially funds "only" $140B of data center capex.
META is spending 45% of their _sales_ of capex. So I wonder when are they going to up their game with a little debt sprinkled on.
- There is a book called "Talent is overrated" it essentially says, you need to 1) invest time, 2) do targeted practice, and 3) have a mentor, who helps you in targeted practice. Practice alone is not enough, it must be targeted at 1) what is relevant and/or 2) where your biggest weakness is at the moment.
- I believe this is for the fringe cases where you have been diagnosed with hypertension, but your apple Watch does not tell you that you have hypertension risk, then you may decide to not take your drugs, since your watch told you all clear. This could trigger lawsuits if complications set in when you decide not to take your drugs because of "lack of alarm"