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- People need to understand that OpenAI is not a publicly traded company. Sam is allowed to be outrageously optimistic about his best case scenarios, as long as he is correct with OpenAI's investors. But those investors are not "the public", so he can publicly state pretty much anything he wants, as long as it is not contradicting facts.
So he cannot say "OpenAI made 20B profit last year." but can say "OpenAI will make 20B revenue next year." Optimism is not a crime.
- > Hint: it’s because every point on that plot is a wild extrapolation.
I don't understand, or do not spot the issue you are seeing. Could you expand a bit?
- I'm sorry, but I double checked and I do think you have it wrong. Figure 3 is for "sea level rise _rate_", and that one is indeed high but not significantly so.
Quoting "The satellite-based linear trend 1993–2011 is 3.2± 0.5 mm yr−1 , which is 60% faster than the best IPCC estimate of 2.0 mm yr−1 for the same interval"
But, as the authors point out, the worst case forecasts that were within-data, are so for the wrong reasons. Quote "The model(s) defining the upper 95-percentile might not get the right answer for the right reasons, but possibly by overestimating past temperature rise."
My previous comment is regarding Figure 2, i.e. "Sea Level". I would invite you to read the whole paper. It is only 3 pages and written without jargon.
- The paper I cite is for sea level rise. IPCC models from 1990 and 2011 have made forecasts on sea level rise. When we compare those to what actually happened up to 2025, we see that we are slightly worse right now than their highest sea level prediction that was made.
We're worse than their worst case scenario, so their models were significantly too optimistic.
In the same paper, they also note that for temperature, the models have been accurate.
- The IPCC has historically also underestimated the effect of climate change on the sea.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044...
- And the EU apparently has the counter ready, which would make such companies liable for millions when they enact US sanctions in the EU.
I'm very curious what would happen then? Nothing presumable, as nothing ever happens, or it might be another step to separate the EU market from the US.
- The article continues that he asks for the EU to activate an existing blocking regulation (Regulation (EC) No 2271/96), which prevents third countries like the USA from enforcing sanctions in the EU. Activating it would make American companies following US sanction in Europe liable for damages.
I think that is the most important point in the article.
- Every now and then, topics on HN are being brigaded by (among others) such accounts. But to do that effectively, you need to build a sizeable amount of accounts with some karma, and I think that's what is tried here with an LLM.
Last time I was very suspicious about the discussion, was here: https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=45809866 Lots of comments from new-ish accounts.
- Yeah, don't mind Jeff the Large Language Model.
- In Figure 13, there are some Western countries listed for how much children can roam, and Ireland is indeed near the bottom.
But the Netherlands, Nordics and Germany are still very much on the other side of the spectrum in these studies.
See for instance the books "The Happiest Kids in the World", "Achtung Baby" and "There is No Such Thing as Bad Weather" about raising children in the Netherlands, Berlin and Sweden respectively.
Those places are very much not like the USA yet. Though as the article points out, they are definitely going in that direction.
- From the little Ukrainian I know, I do know that they have 3 forms for the word year ("рік" pronounced r-ee-k). There is one that matches the English singular "рік" (but you'd also use it for e.g. 21 years), and there is one "роки" which is used for quantities 2, 3 and 4 (but also 22, 23 and 24) and another plural form "років" for the other quantities. [0]
So, the few lines of the localisation you posted don't work for Ukrainian and most other Slavic languages.
And that is the issue! Languages differ a lot in ways that are hard to catch in code. And it is the issue leading to for instance "blob(s)" in localised applications, as a lot of languages don't even have a plural, such as Mandarin.
[0] https://translate.google.com/?sl=en&tl=uk&text=1%20year%20ol...
- Striggor6 == kfterrg67 (banned) == ghuffed (banned)
This person has been spewing far right talking points mixed with casual insults for weeks now.
- > I would respect you far more if you candidly admitted that you are violently envious of wealthier and happier families, and wish to manipulate the levers of the state to crush them and steal their property on your behalf.
I don't think that is accurate, but let me try to get as close as possible with something that is accurate:
* I am not envious of people with wealthy and happy families. After all, I have exactly such a family.
* I am empathetic with people that don't have such a family.
* I recognise that there are a lot of the former, who are wealthy beyond their needs due to no merit of their own, while there are a lot of the latter who live below their needs despite their merits.
* I want the state to provide for the poor up to what they need, and to fund it they can take some from the rich who got it without merit.
* Inheritance is the perfect place. After all, the estate is given for neither merit nor need. And the owner of the estate doesn't exist anymore, so has no more moral rights.
- Of course? I think we are debating the same side of this point though: "Inheritance is a horrible way to divide prosperity within society, as it doesn't take into account the wants or needs of the people still alive."
If that is not the case, I unfortunately still didn't get your point.
- Sure, almost all parents want the best for their children. But not every child has a parent that can or wants to provide the best for them.
You are framing the issue as a right you have for society to provide for your children when you are dead. I am framing the issue as a right everyone has for society to provide for them, irregardless of who their parents were when those parents were still alive.
You absolutely can fool a lot of compilers out there! And I am not only looking at you, NVCC.