His logic is off and his experience is irrelevant because i doesn’t encompass scale to have been exposed to an actual paradigm shifting event. Civilizations and entire technologies have been overturned so he can’t say it won’t happen this time.

What we do know is this. If AI keeps improving at the current rate it’s improving then it will eventually hit a point where we don’t need software engineers. That’s inevitable. The way for it to not happen is for this technology to hit an impenetrable wall.

This wave of AI came so fast that there are still stubborn people who think it’s a stochastic parrot. They missed the boat.