guiand parent
Long horizon events like this on Polymarket stabilize around a % odds corresponding to time value of money. You can get 4% buying risk free CDs for that horizon.
this is not true - if you know for certaint that trump will be president through winning an election in 2028 you can make over 20X your money.
at the end of the day people don't actually believe it, which is why trump is valued little. people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
There are in fact people who avoid gambling on general principle, unrelated to any one particular thing they're being pressured to bet on.
I am not sure that is a useful principle. I tend to keep an umbrella around in the car regardless whether the forecast calls for rain. Do these people similarly avoid stock markets, insurance, and similar products in the risk space?
Because nothing screams you're serious more than throwing large sums of money at a shady gambling website.
people who claim to know the winning lotto numbers but never buy tickets shouldn't be taken seriously =)
You can have an opinion without financializing it.
>> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
Either that, or they don’t have money to throw at dumb bets.
If Trump indeed manages to turn the country into a dictatorship I think winning money on polymarket is going to be the last thing you'll be thinking about