This is an interesting point that I haven’t thought about:
“Especially because of the speed at which chips like GPUs (a key component of that infrastructure) depreciate, it may be that the real winner is whichever country doesn’t overextend itself to the point of financial ruin, in a foolish effort to win a race that can’t be won.”
For all the first mover advantage people talk about, it seems like it’s the countries that don’t spend too much on gen 1 infrastructure and can invest in gen 2+ infrastructure that do the best.
And China is really good at executing on long term 5-10 year plans. I am sure they have really smart scientists advising the government to pace themselves unlike the US where pretty much all of the GDP growth came from AI spend.
“Especially because of the speed at which chips like GPUs (a key component of that infrastructure) depreciate, it may be that the real winner is whichever country doesn’t overextend itself to the point of financial ruin, in a foolish effort to win a race that can’t be won.”
For all the first mover advantage people talk about, it seems like it’s the countries that don’t spend too much on gen 1 infrastructure and can invest in gen 2+ infrastructure that do the best.