Comment by derektank - Hacker Neue

derektank Dec 13, 2025 parent

We are at full employment. The federal reserve estimates the natural rate of unemployment at being between 3.8 and 4.5 percent. Currently, unemployment is 4.4%

toomuchtodo Dec 13, 2025

We are not, based on corporations laying off workers to reset wages downward, offshoring to India and LATAM, and it taking 6-12 months for workers to find jobs. Large US companies are making every effort to disempower workers, and they should be provided no advantages in acquiring talent when it exists domestically.

Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 pandemic, Challenger says - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-ye... - December 4th, 2025

The Fed can't help America's young tech workers who are struggling to find a job - https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=45705212 - October 2025

Millions of Workers Are Left Out of the 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' US Job Market - https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=45414795 - September 2025

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference - https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon... - September 17th, 2025

https://www.hackerneue.com/item?id=45308049 (citations)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

https://layoffs.fyi/

EDIT: @SilverElfin: I remain supportive of the idea of issuing O-1 visas to exceptional talent, if exceptional ability and achievement can be proven in an objective manner. A degree or credential does not make one exceptional (imho).

toomuchtodo Dec 19, 2025

Additional citation:

Americans Facing a Tough Job Market in 2025 Won’t Get a Break Next Year - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/what-to-e... | https://archive.today/2Eim9 - December 19th, 2025

derektank OP Dec 13, 2025

Labor reallocation occurs even during periods of full employment. Companies lose market share to rivals, businesses decide to spend money on capital expenditures that automate away existing roles, etc. If your goal is to stop immigration until layoffs cease to exist, you’re essentially calling for a permanent moratorium.

toomuchtodo Dec 13, 2025

I am calling for a temporary moratorium for issuing new worker visas based on the current economic macro and existing immigrant worker base in the US companies can pick from, yes. I support the current $100k H-1B fee, in perpetuity. The domestic workforce exists, it is a choice to not pick from the domestic labor pool. Choices have consequences.

SilverElfin Dec 13, 2025

The domestic workforce exists, but the skilled workers are employed already. There is unemployment in America at low skill levels where companies don’t want to hire those workers at any price. It isn’t a viable choice if you are an employer and have spent time hiring. Most companies are definitely willing if it was a choice.

toomuchtodo Dec 13, 2025

Please prove this assertion with citations. There is robust evidence skilled workers are underemployed or unemployed for substantial periods of time. If you cannot prove this assertion, please do not assert it as fact.

SilverElfin Dec 13, 2025

I don’t think there are good studies on this. What’s the robust evidence you’re referring to? Does it use good definitions for “skilled”? Does it prove that specific unemployed workers would have been employed by the specific employers who hired an immigrant?

SilverElfin Dec 13, 2025

I noticed you said “large companies”. Does that mean you think small companies or startups should get different treatment?

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