The CPU and GPU in this are last generation, and he believes Valve got a bulk discount on unsold RDNA3 mobile GPUs. They did something similar with the Steam Deck riding off a Magic Leap custom design. People predicted that would be pricey too but launched with (and still has) a $399 model.
Having said that, it would be great to see the GabeCube come in around the prices he's guesstimating. I hope it finds great success.
The lower SKUs for Steam Deck are sold pretty much with zero margin or even at a loss, as Newell said this was a strategic decision to enter the mobile gaming market. However, for PC gaming, Valve already has a monopoly, and selling general-purpose hardware with little or no margin sounds like a recipe for losing money quick, which is not what Valve is known for...
But hey, we don't have to argue. Let's meet on HN again when the price is announced and I'll happily eat my words. :-)
Consider what the Steam Machine requires sacrificing:
- fewer USB-C connectors
- larger physical footprint
- can't buy and take it home today
It's hard to do an apples-to-apples comparison between the chips, but where one is better than the other on some dimension, it's offset by some other. They're approximately comparable.
Now, what's the price of the Mac Mini? $598.92
When people are talking about price points that have a higher margin than even Apple's devices have, you have to stop and consider whether people who are tossing around numbers like $750 with a straight face are actually trying to be rational but failing or they are just totally yielding to getting caught up in the hype.
Now, of course Apple takes ridiculous money for additional RAM and storage, but this is exactly how they achieve their famous margins (everything's soldered, so you cannot upgrade yourself). Thanks to the AI hype, DDR5 RAM is very expensive at the moment, as is GDDR5, as is SSD storage. Nobody here, including you, knows what kind of deal Valve will be able to get here. There's a reason they are not announcing any prices yet, because there are so many uncertainties at the moment (tariffs, anyone?), that most probably Valve themselves do not know yet.
The Mac Mini can play many games, but it cannot play most games like this Steam Machine. Developers barely supported the Mac before the ARM switch, and now it's somehow even worse.
Gaming with a Mac is an exercice in zen enlightenment.
Plus the 7600M (which is suspected to be the Steam Machine GPU) is an existing design on a legacy node, and they don't have to worry about it threatening their current lineup. They can go pretty low with the price.
They might get something out of it - considering the modest hardware, devs will have to optimize for it, which might get them a couple extra percent on more modern hardware as well.
I'd be astonished if they manage to get the Steam Machine down to 800$ (bundled with a controller). Knowing how Valve loves their margins, it's probably closer to 1000$ or even more. This is not something you spontaneously buy to play around with.