But the stock is up 30% on the news. So lose 10%, but gain 30%, so net 20% beneficial to equity holders?
But yes. That's the intent.
The "problem" is that OpenAI doesn't have any of the shares yet, and it's unclear how much they actually will get. Right now AMD shareholders have the full +30% gain with none of the loss. But will the +30% gain be wiped out on the news OpenAI won't be buying as many AMD GPUs? Only time can tell.
The first 0.1% of shareholders to sell would get the full +30%, then the next 0.1% would get ~28%, then the next... and by the time you got down to the last of the initial shareholders trying to liquidate, the price would likely be pennies on the dollar.
This is not value, but hot air.
The value these things represent is based almost entirely on the myth/hype + 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations at this point.
If you don't get dividends or voting power from your shares, all you have left is liquidation rights in the event of a bankruptcy. So, the shares are really worth their share of ~whatever AMD's assets are worth in a bankruptcy.
But, because we trade them in public markets, they're immediately worth whatever someone else will pay. And that's basically much more tethered to myth (and consistent 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations) than to fundamentals at this point.
Right now, 401k funds are buying AMD at this higher share price, with zero due diligence!
So, if growth stops / if job losses explode, then 401k contributions slow down (or reverse!), then markets fall, then margin calls happen, then markets fall more, more job losses...
There's a lot of cash sloshing around in the system from all the 2020s money printing, and there's a perma-buy-the-dip mentality that has come out of this extreme bull market (bubble market), so there is quite some extra resilience; but, the coyote is really going to have a reckoning once it finally looks down...
ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL this means everyone holding AMD has 10% of their equity/value taken away and handed to OpenAI.
But all else is not equal. OpenAI only gets the shares if they buy AMD GPUs. The intent is that this offsets the dilution by making AMD overall more valuable. (This is why the stock price jumped on the announcement) It's a GPU subsidy paid for by AMD's shareholders rather than AMD itself.
The real risk is that this further entangles AMD in the AI bubble. OpenAI already has enormous datacenter construction obligations. The likelihood of them failing to meet these new obligations, and thus this deal falling through or otherwise not materialising, is pretty high. If the AI bubble goes *POP*, AMD will be hurting a lot more than before this deal.