Preferences

I really wonder, why so much noise about this case. I agree, semiconductors are extremely important in current world, but did you know, Volkswagen AG is partially owned by State of Lower Saxony (~ 11.8%)?

Also worth to remember cases of Rolls-Royce, Ericsson, and some other unfortunate Western companies, important for many humans, but once became unable to stay economically viable. (BTW it make me laugh, when I got info, Bentley now under WAG, when RR under BMW, as technically, they many decades was one entity)

WAG case is different from Intel case (and other I mention), but there are also many similarities, because of which I think, Intel case may be special for US, but is not too special for West.

And I think, such cases are bad, they are great shame, but also they are signs, we must do something, to make Western produced semiconductors more competitive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group


mmcnl
France and The Netherlands have a combined stake of almost 40% in Air France - KLM. It's not unheard of. 10% seems very reasonable for such a critical company for US interests.
kingkongjaffa
I'm confused why you mentioned Rolls-Royce and then in relation to BMW.

The government intervention of RR was nothing to do with the cars.

The original Rolls-Royce company, which included the car division, was nationalized by the British government in 1971 due to financial issues with its aerospace business.

The car division was separated in 1973.

The parent company, Rolls-Royce plc (nothing to do with cars), was sold to the public in a share offering in 1987, meaning it was no longer government-owned.

In 1998, BMW purchased Rolls-Royce Motor Cars.

simne OP
> I'm confused ... > The original Rolls-Royce company ...due to financial issues with its aerospace business.

Well, it is because you do not understand economy of business. Unfortunately, main goal of any business is to be viable, not mean profitable, just be good enough to pay expenses need to run things defined as goals.

By definition, ALL old automotive companies started as hybrids - car division to make profits and motors division to make use of outstanding knowledge gathered when making consumer cars (as highest technology of that time). There are nearly no exceptions - Daimler began as Daimler plus Maybach; BMW began as motorized vehicles garages production plus motors business; Renault began as aviation motors business, made automobiles to make additional cash.

When Rolls-Royce divided to aerospace motors and cars, it was already semi-dead business, because their aerospace behavior was non-viable without donations from car division.

To be exact, I don't mean, aerospace impossible to be viable, just RR was.

And returning to our ontopic, Intel was caught in same hole - they lost their superiority and cannot survive without external help, absolutely as RR business.

idrathernot
I think the main counter example to this in the case of Intel is Global Foundries success after splitting from AMD. However GF had to find their own niche downmarket to the cutting edge nodes that AMD requires. So in the case of RR, it’d be like if the turbine segment gave up on SOTA aero engines and instead transitioned into electricity generation turbines (or some less sexy end market).

My personal bias is that in the long term, keeping the different divisions as one whole makes both sides less fragile in the long run.

The other problem I think you’re getting at that being on the cutting edge of a market that is extremely capital intensive is a tough sell to the banks & financiers. I feel like every industry outside of finance is increasingly squeezed out like humanity can survive on securities arbitrage alone.

simne OP
> Global Foundries success after splitting from AMD

As I know, in ~1990th HBR written article about constantly under-loaded semiconductor fabs and concluded, it is unprofitable to tightly couple them to R&D.

Counter-argument was, that Intel used ties to fabs, to achieve extreme level of scalability, to fill market demand fastest, so marketing won.

What really happen, appeared few new specialized classes of semiconductors - signal, accelerators, high-power (high-current), and low-power (energy effective), and independent fabs made universal pipeline, to fill all market demand, but Intel stuck on desktop CPUs and failed all other classes (as example, Intel was unsuccessful in try to got niche on smartphones SoCs - still have not made cellular modem and nearly failed on GPUs).

To be more exact, Nvidia in reality is most software company from hardware companies, and AMD with their GPU division constantly competes to Nvidia literally head-to-head.

And what was gamechanger - when AMD struck to limits of reliable transistors on one die, they decided to switch to chiplets - they made 2.5D multiple-die design with silicon interimposer, while Intel used their manufacturing superiority to make huge dies with all included.

- Once appeared, with chiplets, AMD could achieve much better performance on weaker but much cheaper technology and won.

So my point - Intel suffered from too tightly couples with fabs, so once they have to adapt their designs and marketing to semiconductors, when AMD successfully avoided this trap. BTW, for this exist much better example - similar problem once killed Atari and Commodore.

simne OP
BTW, Bentley was part of RR business model, as basically, Bentley was luxury-sports line of RR, in all other properties very similar to RR.

So, when first Bentley separated from RR, Bentley become rival of RR, and now Bentley and RR divide same market. And this is very bad for their economy, very much like Volkswagen Golf GTI eat market from SEAT performance models, but VW already killed SEAT to avoid unnecessary internal rivalry, and RR-Bentley cannot do this, because they are now different business entities and their coordinated moves prohibited by regulations.

elliotto
If Volkswagen goes under, the Lower Saxony government likely loses an income stream.

If Intel goes under, Taiwan becomes the battleground for WW3.

simne OP
Unfortunately, auto industry is core industry of modern economy for a long time. - Semiconductors and computers become core industry much later.

But core industries are just head of iceberg, you may not hear, typically 90% of iceberg are deep under water surface, very much like core vs non-core.

Any way, if large entity from core industry goes under, this could lead to killing domino effect for many "underwater" entities.

That is really big problem, which president Trump tried to avoid, when bought share of Intel.

And no, I disagree about battleground for now. What really important, really good strategists know, wars win by economy, not by military, as military could not withstand if they have not enough money for weapons and equipment.

So, basically, now US is stronger than China, so Chinese tops decide to not begin war which will not be profitable, while US is strong.

When and if China will feel competitive to US economically, they will be much more confident to begin war, so now the best what could do US tops to avoid war - to make China weaker and US stronger ECONOMICALLY.

simne OP
Current situation very similar to space race, which was started when Soviets launch first satellite in 1957, because ICBMs are basically space scale rockets.

Unfortunately, now China already could make space scale rockets, so competition moved to other space - to computers and semiconductors (and possible branch to nano-industry or bio-nano, or something similar).

bdangubic
we must do something, to make Western produced semiconductors more competitive.

and letting Federal Government in on this is sure to make this happen - just like everything else being ran by the Federal Government

simne OP
> just like everything else being ran by the Federal Government

Well, I don't like when something ran by Federal Government, but I have similar example: when somebody ill by flu, I don't like to use antibiotics, but sometimes must use antibiotics as fast measures to save life.

That is. Previous pro-semiconductor measures was not fast enough, and Intel was in real trouble and need to use something fast, and now we have bought time to do right but slow things.

bdangubic
antibiotics work albeit being shitty for you in the long run. gov never works in short or long term (and especially long term since every 4 to 8 years everything one party did the other one destroys the day after inauguration)
CharlieDigital
To be fair, US government is pretty good at strategic weapons; best in history. So if you view chips through that maybe it all works out.
bdangubic
this is being ran at about 9,800% waste which is why our department of offense budget is equal to 976 GDPs of Germany… very very bad example
HankStallone
The noise is 99% due to who is president. If President Bernie Sanders were doing exactly the same thing, most of the people complaining about it would be singing praises to his foresight, and most of the people cheering for it would be screaming about socialism. It's completely team-based.

This item has no comments currently.