China has no reason nor any incentive to invade Taiwan. They are moving ahead with a strategy of overwhelming force and patience. In short China will simply continue to greatly expand its Navy and overall military size. It will do so until its so overwhelming that Taiwan will simply end up voting to join back with China as it will be in its own interest. China has no need to speed this process up and can simply do exactly what it is doing now.. and just watch how things will change in the next 5-10-15 years.
But why would Taiwan vote to join China if China isn't going to actually attack it? Makes no sense. China could have 10x the military of the US and park it right outside Taiwan everyday for 100 years but if they dont do anything to Taiwan it has no incentive to reunify.
The scenario where Taiwan peacefully reunifies is where they decide they want to be part of China of their own interest.
Do you think an invasion of Taiwan brings risk of a new, worse status quo? I think that's primarily why China doesn't invade. If it were possible to just achieve an easy, total victory then there is no reason to wait for Taiwanese people to change their mind about joining China.
The reason China doesn't want to is because they want a peaceful reunification. They want to wait when it's so obvious that Taiwan would lose and lose quickly that Taiwan simply gives itself up.
> They want to wait when it's so obvious that Taiwan would lose and lose quickly that Taiwan simply gives itself up.
I agree they prefer a peaceful resolution but that would be in the form of Taiwan wanting to become part of China and deciding to reunify. It makes no sense to surrender without being forced to.
Im also confused why you say China's inaction on Taiwan isnt about TSMC its about patience, but patience is running out because China wont need TSMC in 10 years. That seems to contradict itself.