Preferences

It’s a nice idea, but evidence needed. We’re still plains apes underneath it all, and that has implications about our ability to plan long term, cooperate in groups larger than 1000, and especially cooperate with groups that are not part of what we perceive to be our in-group.

As witnessed by worldwide developments over the last 15 years.

Or all of human history if I’m taking a broader scope.


Maybe after AI there won’t be need more than 1000 people on the planet
There is no need for any amount or people on the planet, or any other kind of animal for that matter. "Need" is the wrong category to apply to anyone's existence.
Which 1000? Who chooses? (Not us, I assume.)

I suppose this is the real answer to why we won't need UBI. The oligarchs will just wait in their bunkers while the world's population is eradicated by death bots.

That seems the more likely outcome to me than a post-scarcity utopia.

I think crashing world economy and starvation will do it just fine.

I know people point out that Malthusian predictions have always failed so far - but the reason we got to >7G humans is that an enormous amount of science and engineering went into making things better, a large part of which was spearheaded by the US because world peace and prosperity was in the interests of millionaires and billionaires. Now they've decided this isn't in their interest anymore, so I worry that the trend in scientific progress that got us here will be more like the tide - we're now flapping our fins on the beach and the water is receding.

ok settle down there Stalin
… As in people are choosing not to have kids
This isn't how things work. Any group that maintains a positive fertility rate will multiply indefinitely. So when certain groups stop having children, all they do is remove themselves from the gene pool while maximizing the 'genetic share' of those having many children whose children will also disproportionately often do similarly.

This is why many assumptions about the future are simply incorrect. For instance people think humanity will become more secular because it has through most of our lifetimes so surely that trend must continue on into the future? But secularity is inversely correlated with fertility. So all that we're going to see happen is secular folks disproportionately remove themselves from the gene pool while religious folks take an ever larger share - now think about what the children of this new gene pool will, on average, be like.

It's also why the concept of us reaching a 'max population' is rather silly. We will reach a point where the population begins to decline due to certain groups removing themselves from the gene pool, but as the other groups continue to reproduce and produce children who, in turn, reproduce, that population will stabilize and then eventually go up, up, and away again. In other words it's just a local max.

> This is why many assumptions about the future are simply incorrect. For instance people think humanity will become more secular because it has through most of our lifetimes so surely that trend must continue on into the future? But secularity is inversely correlated with fertility.

And has been for the many generations over which humanity has gotten more secular.

> So all that we're going to see happen is secular folks disproportionately remove themselves from the gene pool while religious folks take an ever larger share - now think about what the children of this new gene pool will, on average, be like.

But for generations that hasn’t been what has happened, despite the correlation between religiosity and fertility not being a novel thing that developed this century? Why could that be? Because religion isn't a genetic trait. Fertility of populations and popularity of ideas and practices have some interaction, sure, but not in the simplistic “spread of a genetic lineage determines spread of culture and ideology” way you are trying to push here.

Two things I'd say here. First, is that the 'hereditary' nature of religion is even stronger than I assumed. 84% of adults (quite relevant as we skip the rebellious teen years) who were raised in e.g. a completely Protestant home are Protestants themselves. That bumps up to 89% in households where their parents regularly talked about religion! The relationship is likely even stronger for more 'rigorous' religions such Islam or Haredi Judaism, religions which also correlate extremely strongly with fertility.

The second thing is that you're likely dramatically overestimating the secular population. Gallup has been polling people on religion since 1948. Here [1] are those data. As recently as 2004, the percent of people with no religion was in the single digits, so the overall relevance was low. And the inverse correlation between secularity and fertility is also quite new driven by a rather large number of new factors - antagonistic attitude towards gender roles, the embrace of non-marital sex largely enabled by the introduction of the birth control pill in 1960, and so on. So in general, we're entering into relatively uncharted waters, but it's not hard to see what lies ahead as consequences of fertility decisions lag behind those decisions themselves by ~60 years.

[1] - https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2016/10/26/links-betwee...

[2] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx

You don't inherit secularity. I mean you do, but children copying their parents is not the only way ideas spread. Otherwise secularity would never have spread in the first place.

(That's if we accept that it makes people disinclined to spawn offspring, and that this was always the case and never changes.)

While I'm not sure I agree with you entirely, I will say that any culture that fails at reproducing itself will ultimately be replaced by one that does.

The sad thing is that culture will probably have less concern over individual rights and freedoms, and much more likely to be collectivist and religious.

Not sure I like where this is headed, honestly, but I hope I'm not around to see the fall of liberal democracy.

> While I'm not sure I agree with you entirely, I will say that any culture that fails at reproducing itself will ultimately be replaced by one that does.

You make the same mistake as GP in confusing memetics with genetics. Cultures survive by ideas and behaviors spreading, not by genes. People can spread ideas without having children, and people can have lots of children and have their ideas die out.

Thats a nice summary of what I belive the "great filter" is as far as the fermi paradox.
We are a nasty, self-centered species on a biological level. You can patch that with prosperity and culture, but these things are impermanent and subject to regression, so it's not a durable solution. The only durable solution is altering the biology, but that itself is not without significant risk.
Do you consider yourself nasty and self-centered? Or do you think you're particularly nice, and "we...species" is referencing other people?

Or just say "some people are still nasty and self-centered, although others have at least have decency to care for others after their own needs are satisfied".

I don't agree with the OP, but the OP did say 'on a biological level'. I don't think the OP exists purely on a biological level.
I consider my intrinsic nature to be that, yes, with contextual constraints like culture and sufficient food preventing that nature from acting in the world. And this is just an observation and a description, it's not a moral judgement. It's how it is.
We are mammals though. Doesn't the mammalian brain make us more empathetic? Or do you think our biology has subverted it somehow?
It's possible to believe that humans, as a species, in aggregate, are nasty and self-centered, all while maintaining that individuals can stray from that trendline. There's evidence for this in studies on mob mentality (not just in humans too, but any social animal group) that point to there being an inflection point where either the number of people or the circumstances (or a combination of both) pushes the group to act in predictable - and often nasty - ways.

"a person is smart... people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

- Tommy Lee Jones as "K" in MIB

This is such a useful line, and I think about it all the time. It’s amazing that it came from a blockbuster alien movie.
Compared to what other species? Basically all of them eat each other. Many of them kill their own babies, kill other members of their species who're a competition threat, kill whatever weaker animals they can, etc. I've never heard of another species being altruistic simply for the unselfish welfare of members of other species.
Maybe we're just not good at working in big groups (Dunbar's number) and we need a legal system as a result.
Is the ability to propagate culture part of our biology?
Biology works itself out
Not necessarily, depending on how broad a view of "biology" you're talking. For example, take the many, many, many species that have gone extinct over time. Their biology sure didn't seem to have "work[ed] itself out".
No more reason to care for a species than for an individual sacrificing itself for the group population
Hence "depending on how broad a view of "biology" you're talking".

In any case, by "biology" you're referring to the biosphere? If so, the (potential) risk is that "biology work[ing] itself out" may involve working humans out of the picture as well.

This item has no comments currently.