You’re right — those numbers are illustrative. It’s a hypothetical estimate based on a real-world scenario where a minor install issue (like Gatekeeper rejecting downloads) leads to a non-trivial drop in conversion. Even if it’s just 1% of downloads failing, at a $5 CAC, that’s serious money at scale.

I’m open to better sources — and would love to improve the repo with more concrete stats if anyone has them.

Not trying to spam HN, promise — but yeah, I want to change this situation for indie devs, and I’ll keep improving and sharing until it actually helps more people.