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On a tangential note... This type of problem is very relevant for "impact of ai" estimates.

I think we have a tendency to overestimate efficiency... because of the central roles it plays at the margins that mattered to us at any given time. .

But the economy is bottlenecked in complex ways. Market demand, money, etc.

It's not obvious that 100X more code is something we can use.


We can almost certainly use 100x as much code as is currently written. There's a ton of throwaway code that, if written, would produce small but nonzero value. Certainly 100x as much code wouldn't produce 100x as much value though. I suspect value per unit of code is one of those power law things.

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