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ac29 parent
The 1%/year failure rate appears to just be made up. There are plenty of electric motors that dont have anywhere near that failure rate (at least during the expected service life, failure rates certainly will probably hit 1%/year or higher eventually).

For example, do the motors in hard drives fail anywhere close to 1% a year in the first ~5 years? Backblaze data gives a total drive failure rate around 1% and I imagine most of those are not due to failure of motors.

michaelt
Yes, obviously that 1% figure is a simplification. Of course not all motors are created equal, and neither are all operating conditions!

But the neat thing about my argument is it holds true regardless of the underlying failure rate!

So long as your per-motor annual failure rate is >0, 43x it will be bigger than 3x it.

mrheosuper
your calculation is true, but the absolute number is needed here.

43x of 1% failure rate is tragic, but 43x of 0.1% is acceptable in my book.

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