blindriver parent
Conversely I think that 2x being the least amount of difference between mediocre and best prompts seems unbelievable. I've been using LLMs heavily just like everyone else, and I find that simple direct prompts get me most of what I need. I've never seen it get me less than half of what I expect at all.
Think of Google searching circa 2010 (before they completely screwed it up for profit). The best Google search user was way more effective than a mediocre searcher, even on the much simpler task of searching.
I don’t think you’re giving yourself enough credit for understanding enough about system design to be able to effectively prompt and guide the LLM.
John Carmack* is going to be at least twice as good at making a game with LLM coding assistants as a mediocre prompt engineer will be. Guido van Rossum* and Rich Hickey* will be over 2x a mediocre prompt engineer at language creation. Linus Torvalds* will create the first version of git far faster than any mediocre prompt engineer (who will never complete that task). And on and on…
* replace with whomever you think is “best” in the field you’re comparing.
I guess I disagree with you. I think that results between average and the "best" prompters are getting closer and closer together because that's what LLM designers and customers want.