> I don’t believe the technology horizon in the next 5 years is sufficiently developed for recursive self improvement to work so well it requires no human intervention
I'm personally 50/50 on this prediction at this point. It doesn't feel like we have enough ingredients for end-to-end recursive self-improvement in the next 5 years, but the overall pace is such that I'm hesitant to say it's not likely either.
Still, my reply was to the person who seemed to say they won't be impressed until they see AIs "able to build better versions of themselves" and "exponential improvements of their capabilities" - to this I'm saying, if/when it happens, it'll be the last thing that they'll ever be impressed with.
> remember when everyone was making demos and apps that would identify objects and such, and all the facial augmentation stuff? My general understanding is that the tech is now in the incremental improvement stage.
I thought that this got a) boring, and b) all those advancements got completely blown away by multimodal LLMs and other related models.
My perspective is that we had a breakthrough across the board in this a couple years ago, after the stuff you mentioned happened, and that isn't showing signs of slowing down.
I'm personally 50/50 on this prediction at this point. It doesn't feel like we have enough ingredients for end-to-end recursive self-improvement in the next 5 years, but the overall pace is such that I'm hesitant to say it's not likely either.
Still, my reply was to the person who seemed to say they won't be impressed until they see AIs "able to build better versions of themselves" and "exponential improvements of their capabilities" - to this I'm saying, if/when it happens, it'll be the last thing that they'll ever be impressed with.
> remember when everyone was making demos and apps that would identify objects and such, and all the facial augmentation stuff? My general understanding is that the tech is now in the incremental improvement stage.
I thought that this got a) boring, and b) all those advancements got completely blown away by multimodal LLMs and other related models.
My perspective is that we had a breakthrough across the board in this a couple years ago, after the stuff you mentioned happened, and that isn't showing signs of slowing down.