> The correlation here would be something like: the people using AI to build apps previously would simply never have created an app, so it’s not affecting software development as a career as much as you first expect.
I don't think the original point or your interpretation is correct.
AI will not cause a loss of software development jobs. There will still be a demand for human developers to create software. The idea that non-technical managers and executives will do so with AI tools is as delusional as it was when BASIC, COBOL, SQL, NoCode, etc. were introduced.
AI will affect the industry in two ways, though.
First, by lowering the skill requirements to create software it creates a flood of vibe coders competing for junior-level positions. This dilutes the market value of competent programmers, and makes entering the software industry much more difficult.
A related issue is that vibe coders will never become programmers. They will have the ability to create and test software, which will improve as and if AI tools continue to improve, but they will never learn the skills to debug, troubleshoot, and fix issues by actually programming. This likely won't matter to them or anyone else, however, but it's good to keep in mind that theirs is a separate profession from programming.
Secondly, it floods the software market with shoddy software full of bugs and security issues. The quality average will go down causing frustration for users, and security holes will be exploited increasing the frequency of data leaks, privacy violations, and unquantifiable losses for companies. All this will likely lead to a rejection of AI and vibe coding, and an industry crash not unlike the video game one in 1983 or the dot-com one in 2000. This will happen at the bottom of the Trough of Disillusionment phase of the hype cycle.
This could play out differently if the AI tools reach a level of competence that exceeds human senior software engineers, and have super-human capabilities to troubleshoot, fix, and write bug-free software. In that case we would reach a state where AI could be self-improving, and the demand for human engineers would go down. But I'm highly skeptical that the current architecture of AI tools will be able to get us there.
I don't think the original point or your interpretation is correct.
AI will not cause a loss of software development jobs. There will still be a demand for human developers to create software. The idea that non-technical managers and executives will do so with AI tools is as delusional as it was when BASIC, COBOL, SQL, NoCode, etc. were introduced.
AI will affect the industry in two ways, though.
First, by lowering the skill requirements to create software it creates a flood of vibe coders competing for junior-level positions. This dilutes the market value of competent programmers, and makes entering the software industry much more difficult.
A related issue is that vibe coders will never become programmers. They will have the ability to create and test software, which will improve as and if AI tools continue to improve, but they will never learn the skills to debug, troubleshoot, and fix issues by actually programming. This likely won't matter to them or anyone else, however, but it's good to keep in mind that theirs is a separate profession from programming.
Secondly, it floods the software market with shoddy software full of bugs and security issues. The quality average will go down causing frustration for users, and security holes will be exploited increasing the frequency of data leaks, privacy violations, and unquantifiable losses for companies. All this will likely lead to a rejection of AI and vibe coding, and an industry crash not unlike the video game one in 1983 or the dot-com one in 2000. This will happen at the bottom of the Trough of Disillusionment phase of the hype cycle.
This could play out differently if the AI tools reach a level of competence that exceeds human senior software engineers, and have super-human capabilities to troubleshoot, fix, and write bug-free software. In that case we would reach a state where AI could be self-improving, and the demand for human engineers would go down. But I'm highly skeptical that the current architecture of AI tools will be able to get us there.