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flashgordon parent
I would add one thing though. The pie definitely gets bigger - but i feel there is a period of "downsizing" that happens. I think this is becuase of lack of ideas. When you have tool that (say) 10xes your productivity, its not that bosses will have ideas to build 10x the number of things - they will just look to cut costs first (hello lack of imagination and high interest rates).
sarchertech
We’ve had many improvements that increased productivity at least as much as current LLMs, and I don’t think any of them ever temporarily caused downsizing in the total number of programmers.
flashgordon OP
Is it possible that we dont remember them precisely because they are temporary (atleast in the grand scheme of things)?
sarchertech
It think the only way that’s hiding in the data is if these downturns happen to always coincide with large economic downturns in general.

Or if they are so temporary that they last less than a year.

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