On the other hand this is a bargaining tactic. I do not think these tariffs will last.
> Instead, recall that President Trump views tariffs as generating negotiating leverage for making deals. It is easier to imagine that after a series of punitive tariffs, trading partners like Europe and China become more receptive to some manner of currency accord in exchange for a reduction of tariffs
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...
And look who wrote it
I am less confident. The domestic consequences are immediate. Many of these negotiations are with experienced and patient experts. China, in particular, is under no obligation to its people or stock market to resolve this quickly.
The tariffs may not last, but I think they will end more unilaterally than Miran does. I guess we'll reach the Finding Out stage soon enough.
I think many people in the US, and almost everyone in Europe, has not really woken up to the extent to which their economic clout has diminished over the last few years.
People go into denial about this, as it undermines their worldview, but if you look at west vs rest GDP the change over the last few decades is huge.
Over the past few years a lot of companies have moved production out of China and into friendlier countries like Vietnam, anticipating US pressure on China. Vietnam's tariff rate is 42%. Now they wish they'd left their production lines in China.
That assumes the tariffs will be imposed long term.
They are intended as a bargaining measure so some compromise will be reached. it is very likely that in the long run Vietnam will pay lower tariffs.
... and one day later, where are we? Trump is threatening China with an additional 50% unless they back down. China's response is that they will fight to the bitter end. https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/08/stock-...
Who will win this battle? Or will it be a war? Which philosophical worldview do you prefer?
I suspect Trump is focused on a simple and aggressive message aimed at our largest trading partners, and doesn’t want to dilute it by making exceptions out of the gate.