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Prediction: over the next 4 years we're going to see lots of stories like this. Some of the stories will be fair, some won't. "Musk bad" stories get clicks. The next administration will be very anti-Tesla. Coincidentally, by that time self-driving will be considered mature enough to warrant proper regulation, rather than the experimental regulation status we have now.

Combine the two, and the regulations will be written such that it excludes Tesla and includes Waymo. Not by name, just that the safety regulations will require a safety record better than Tesla's but worse than Waymo's. Likely nobody but Waymo will have that record, and now nobody will be able to because they won't have access to the public roads to attain it.

This might be the ultimate regulatory lock in monopoly we've ever seen.


> Combine the two, and the regulations will be written such that it excludes Tesla and includes Waymo.

The solution seems easier, if only the regulators would pick up upon it.

Under the current human driven auto regime, it is the human that is operating the machine who is liable for any and all accidents.

For a self-driving car, that human driver is now a "passenger". The "operator" of the machine is the software written (or licensed) by the car maker. So the regulation that assures self-driving is up-to-snuff is:

When operating in "self driving" mode, 100% of all liability for any and all accidents rests on the auto manufacturer.

The reason the makers don't seem to care much about the safety of their self driving systems is that they are not the owners of the risk and liability their systems present. Make them own 100% of the risk and liability for "self driving" and all of a sudden they will very much want the self-driving systems to be 100% safe.

Being both the owner and operator, Waymo already has full liability. It's a good proposal, but I don't think it's sufficient if your secondary goal is "screw Elon".

Nor is it sufficient to ensure that self driving is significantly safer than human drivers. I don't think the public wants "slightly safer than humans".

Seems like the obvious solution to this, is if you collect driving data on public highways, the data has to be made available to the public. If you collect the data on private highways you are free to keep it private. If you don't intend to use it in a product on public highways it can remain private.

Doesn't even seem that crazy when you consider the government is already licensing them to be able to use their private data anyway. Biggest issue is someone didn't set it up this way from the start.

Maybe, but why couldn’t a competitor prove their system works using safety drivers?

If a competitor resold their system to other car companies, another possible scenario might be a duopoly like Apple versus Android.

By that time Waymo will likely be over a billion miles of data, and you're likely going to need similar amounts of mileage to prove that your safety margin is >> 10X better than human.
Then Tesla should pay for back up drivers until their safety record meets the bar.
Hmm, but all the real, registered self driving vehicles in California are safer than human drivers - and that the data is better documented, we know that better than comparing human drivers to each other.

The regulations are doing really well, it’s a big victory for regulators, why not make Teslas abide by the same rules? Why not roll out such strict scrutiny gradually to all vehicles and drivers?

You are talking about regulatory degrees that are about safety. It seems the thing that lawmakers change is reactive to other things. Like how much does the community depend on cars to survive? If you cannot eliminate car dependence you can’t really achieve a more moral legal stance than “People can and will buy cars that kill other people so long as it doesn’t kill the driver.”

>ultimate regulatory lock in monopoly...

In fairness to the regulators they have been pretty reasonable so far.

What's the hard part? Maybe Tesla should stop pretending it doesn't need lidar?
It’s imply a next administration. And ediction of new regulation.
> Not by name, just that the safety regulations will require a safety record better than Tesla's but worse than Waymo's.

That's not a bad thing if Tesla is significantly worse than Waymo. That's desirable.

The solution here seems like it would be for Tesla to become as safe as Waymo. If they can't achieve that, that's on them. Unfair press doesn't cause that.

I mean, I care about not dying in a car accident. If Tesla is less safe, and this leads to people taking safer Waymos instead, I can't see that as anything but a good thing. I don't want to sacrifice my life so another company can put out more dangerous vehicles.

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