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Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution.

That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet.

My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won't lend you money; I barely know you" message... you name it.

Normally all of those things would take much longer and I'd get worse results on my own.

If that's what I can do at the personal level, then surely 10% is an easily-achievable improvement at the enterprise level.


All I hear is anecdotal statements from people claiming LLMs have made them some percent more productive. Yet few actually say how or demonstrate it.

For the last year, I've tried all sorts of models both as hosted services and running locally with llama.cpp or ollama. I've used both the continue.dev vscode extension and cursor more recently.

The results have been frustrating at best. The user interface of the tools is just awful. The output of any models from Deepseek to quen to Claude to whatever other model is mediocre to useless. I literally highlight some code that includes comments about what I need and I even include long explicit descriptions etc in the prompts and it's just unrelated garbage out every time.

The most useful thing has just been ChatGPT when there's something I need to learn about. Rubber ducking basically. It's alright at very simple coding questions or asking about obscure database questions I might have, but beyond that it's useless. Gotta keep the context window short, or it starts going off the rails every single time.

If LLM chatbots are making you vastly more productive in a field, you are in the bottom 20% of that field.

They're still useful tools for exploring new disciplines, but if you're say a programmer and you think ChatGPT or DeepSeek is good at programming, that's a good sign you need to start improving.

This. I shudder to think of the hubris of a programmer who doesn’t understand pointers prompting an AI model to generate low-level system code for them. Sure it might generate a program that appears to work. But is that human reading the code qualified to review it and prevent the model from generating subtle, non-obvious errors?
Linus hasn't coded in decades, let the man retire in peace.
If you have to tell others that then perhaps some introspection for yourself might be helpful. Comes across more as denial than constructive commentary.

I do believe the benefit decreases the more senior or familiar the work is but there is still a noticeable benefit and I think it largely depends on the velocity and life cycle of the product. I think you get less benefit the slower the velocity or the more mature of a product. To deny it like in your post is simply being an intellectual minimalist.

Again, show your evidence.

You make a polite but still ad hominem "attack" about me instead of addressing my points with demonstrations of evidence.

Make a video or blog article actually showing how your use of LLMs in coding is making you more productive. Show what it's doing to help you that has a multiplier effect on your productivity.

Oh I see, I had replied to your comment directly where I was stating that I find it surprising that folks like yourself are so quick to attack, though looking at your response here its not that surprising.

I don't think it deserves a video or blog, like I already said the multiple posts that have made HN front page have covered it well. - Autocomplete saves me keystrokes usually - Features like Cursor's composer/agent allow me to outsource junior level changes to the code base. I can copy/paste my requirements and it gives me the diffs of the changes when its done. Its often at a junior level or better and tackles multi-file changes. I usually kick this off and go make other changes to the code base.

Now like I have said before, this depends a lot on the velocity of the team and the maturity of the code base. I think more mature products you will have less benefit on feature implementation and most likely more opportunity in the test writing capabilities. Likewise, teams with a slower cadence, thinking a bluechip software company compared to a startup, are not going to get as much benefit either.

Instead of being so aggressive, simply say why it does not work for you. These tools strive in web dev which you may not be involved in!

I was not replying to you so I hope your comment was not directed at me?
I see a gap between "vastly more productive" and "noticeable benefit".
good shoes help me walk a bit faster, and for longer.

they don't let me walk at the pace of a SUV.

AI is like the good shoes. they help, and make many tasks a bit easier. but they can't make me into an SUV.

and if they can, then no programmers will have jobs. which is the end-state of this whole LLM thing as far as I can tell.

I would like to propose a moratorium on these sorts of “AI coding is good” or “AI coding sucks” comments without any further context.

This comment is like saying, “This diet didn’t work for me” without providing any details about your health circumstances. What’s your weight? Age? Level of activity?

In this context: What language are you working in? What frameworks are you using? What’s the nature of your project? How legacy is your codebase? How big is the codebase?

If we all outline these factors plus our experiences with these tools, then perhaps we can collectively learn about the circumstances when they work or don’t work. And then maybe we can make them better for the circumstances where they’re currently weak.

I feel like diet as an analogy doesn't work. We know that the only way to lose weight is with a caloric deficit. If you can't do this, it doesn't matter what you eat you won't lose weight. If you're failing to lose weight because of a diet you are eating too much, full stop.

Whereas measuring productivity and usefulness is way more opaque.

Many simple software systems are highly productive for their companies.

I think its about scope and expectations. I have had some form of AI code completer in my neovim config for 3 years. It works flawlessly and saves me tons of keystrokes. Sure sometimes it suggests the incorrect completion but I just ignore it and keep coding as if it didn't exist. I am talking about line by line, not entire code blocks, but even that it does well at times.

From what I have seen the people that have the most success have AI building something from scratch using well known tooling (read: old tooling).

The problem is that doesn't immediately help most people. We are all stuck in crap jobs with massive, crusty code bases. Its hard for AI because its hard for everyone.

I've been using Amazon Q Developer as it was provided and approved by my employer. It has been pretty good with Python codebases, Kubernetes configurations, and (not surprisingly) CDK/Cloudformation templates. I can pretty much just ask it "here's my python script, make everything I need to run it as a lambda, hook that lambda up to x, it should run in a vpc defined in this template over here", and it'll get all that stuff put together and its normally pretty solid code it generates. It seems to pull in a lot of the context of the project I have open. For instance, I can say "it should get those values from the outputs in other-cf-template.yml" and it knows the naming schemes and what not across templates, even if it didn't generate those templates.

I might go back and tweak some stuff, add some extra tags and what not, but often its pretty good at doing what I ask.

Sometimes its suggestions aren't what I was really wanting to do in my codebase, a handful of times it has made up methods or parameters of even well-known libraries. But usually, its suggestions are better than a basic IntelliSense-style autocomplete at least in my experiences.

I haven't used many of the other developer assistant plugins like say GitHub Copilot. I couldn't really say which is better or worse. But I do think using Q Developer has made me faster in many tasks.

I wouldn't expect a tool that doesn't have access to the context of my editor and the files I have open to be very useful for actually coding. There's a lot of context to understand in even a basic application. If you're just asking a locally running app in ollama "give me a method to do x", don't be surprised if it doesn't know everything else happening in your app. Maybe it'll give you a halfway decent example of doing something, but devoid of how it actually plugs in to whatever you're making it might be entirely worthless.

Just in the past couple months there have been a number of "I am a senior/principal engineer and this is how I use LLMs". I would agree that the tools are not optimal yet but every iteration has improved for me.

Maybe whatever language you are coding it or whatever project you are working on is not a good fit? It is an equally perplexing situation for myself when I hear anecdotes like yours which don't align with my experience. The fact that you say everything is garbage calls into question either how you are using the tool or something else.

I can reliably use cursor's composer to reference a couple files, give a bullet list of what we are trying to do and point it to one of the better models and the output is junior engineer level or better output. When I say junior, I mean a junior who has experience with the codebase.

What kinds of projects are you working on? My experience is jot very good with these tools (expanded in a sibling comment).
Generally a lot of web-dev which is where I would assume LLMs shine the best. I noted elsewhere but I think it depends a lot on the age of the product and the level of velocity. For early life products where the speed of your velocity matters, I think you can get the most benefit. The more mature the product and the slower the team implements features, the benefits are still measurable but not as high.
Ah yeah, I can totally see how it can be useful for churning put tons of code. Even without copy-paste, just generating a ton of references and rewriting/improving them. Anecdotally, I’ve tried asking deepseek to review a few files of my code — it wasn’t bad at all, though not without false positives.
I agree with the other commenter that said if you're "vastly" more productive as a developer due to AI, you probably weren't that good to begin with. Otherwise, please provide concrete examples.

Myself, I do find it quite useful in a few respects. First and foremost, as a "better Google/StackOverflow." If something's not working, I can describe my exact scenario and usually get pointed in the right direction. Sometimes the LLM just wastes my time by very confidently telling me some function/library that solves my exact problem exists when in fact it doesn't.

Second, IntelliJ's local LLM is sort of a smarter autocomplete. It makes some outright wrong suggestions, but when there's areas where I have to do a lot of repetitive tasks that follow a simple pattern (like for instance, mapping fields from one type of object to another), it does a pretty good job of making correct suggestions. I definitely appreciate it but it's certainly not doing things like writing a significant portion of code in my style.

Seriously. It’s like half of the people in this thread are living in a completely different world.

And this is coming from someone who uses LLMs daily at the subscription, API (vscode and 3 nextjs apps) and local level. I have a custom langchain stack, prompt repo, you name it. And regardless of how little or how much I use what I have, or what soup de jour prompt or process (from Keep it simple to Prompt enhancers) I can’t say it’s made a meaningful difference in my life. Even with all of the customization and planning.

It’s a great search engine though.

Would it look like such a good search engine if the actual search engines hadn't progressively broken themselves over the last 15 years?

I swear half the time when I use it to look up the nuances of system API stuff, it's replaying forum, mailing list or Stackoverflow conversations that Google ought to be able to find but somehow can't.

> All I hear is anecdotal statements from people claiming LLMs have made them some percent more productive. Yet few actually say how or demonstrate it.

It's very difficult to measure productivity of most people, certainly most people in office jobs, so while you can have a gut feeling that you're doing better, it's no more measurable than pre-AI individual productivity measurement was

It’s not really about objective measurements, but practical applications. Like try this in the following manner and compare it to your previous workflow. Sensible advices like the ones found in The Pragmatic Programmer.
Sure, so it's always going to be annecdotal. That doesn't mean the benefits don't exist, just means they can't be objectively measured. Just like we can't objectively measure the output of a single knowlege worker, especially output on a single day
I have a similar experience. Tried to use it for real work and got frustrated by the chat’s inability to say “I don’t know”. It’s okay for code snippets demonstrating how something can be used (stack overflow essentially), also code reviews can be helpful if doing something for the first time. But they fail to answer questions I’m interested in like “what’s the purpose of X”.
I fixed the hinge in my oven by giving perplexity.com the make and problem. I saved an hour on the phone calling people to organise a visit some time in the next week.

Maybe you should stop using the Ai slop tools that don't work?

Very likely you would have been as successful without AI to fix your oven hinge yourself, there is tons of content about that online.
No. I'd already spend 30 Min looking at how to solve it myself. The search on perplexity was a hail marry before I started calling handymen.
And Henry Ford would reply: "Who is going to buy the cars?"

We have been living in a fake economy for quite some time where money is printed and distributed to the "tech" sector. Which isn't really "tech", but mostly entertainment (YouTube, Netflix, Facebook, ...).

Growth of the economy means nothing. The money that has been printed goes to shareholders. What the common man gets is inflation and job losses.

If you want to grow the real economy, build houses and reduce the cost of living.

> If you want to grow the real economy, build houses and reduce the cost of living.

Yes, I wonder why it is so hard for Western countries to understand that there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary. If may look cool for a few years until most people have left or are living on the streets.

"there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary."

don't get me wrong, everyone want cheaper housing but not their house

Maybe its time we stop seeing housing as an investment and more of a place to shelter oneself from the elements. One of the core pillars of survival
I for one would love it. If I have to sell housing then I have to buy housing, it's not a benefit to me unless I reduce my quality of life.
Plenty of housing. The problem is, people want cheap housing in places where everyone wants to live. I don't think that will happen any time soon.
This is a non-sense that spreads because of North American style of housing. If you're talking about sprawling suburban houses then you're right. But big cities have provided reasonable housing for lots of workers for centuries. The only thing you need is to build more apartments in the cities that have an excess of job positions.
No, you can't just "build more apartments". For these new inhabitants you will need more grocery stores, more bus/subway stops and overall transportation, more hospitals, more firefighters, more restaurants, more gyms, more tennis courts, more of everything.
Of course. Big cities with all this infrastructure are nothing new. They existed in the past and are big in alive in Asia and other parts of the world. Only in North America we have this bizarre world where it seems like a strange thing to build cities and provide infrastructure for workers!
There is basically no large city outside of subsaharan African & maybe the subcontinent that has that development style and anything even approaching a sustainable 2.1 total fertility rate
There is no cheap housing anywhere in the entire state of California. In the worst and poorest parts of the state where are basically no jobs or anything the housing is still way more expensive than anyone can afford.
So move out of there. Plenty of cheap housing in the country.
A friend tried to tell me China has a real estate crisis, because the value of houses is dropping due to building to many and people are losing on their investments. I asked him if he is sure cheap and available housing is a crisis.
Everyone in the industry losing their shirts and going out of business is a crisis. It happened 15 years ago in the US and we still haven't made it back to mid 90s level of housing starts.
You should be curious why Nadella is looking for the world to grow at that rate. That’s because he wants Microsoft to grow into $500B/year in revenue by 2030, and it will be challenging without that economic growth to grow into that target. You can grow into a TAM, try to grow or broaden the TAM, or some combination of both. Without AI, it is unlikely the growth target can be met.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/microsoft-ceo-nadella-said-r...

Annual growth rates during the Industrial Revolution where way lower than 10%. In the 18th century it was well below 1%, during the 19th century it was on average at 1-1.5% (the highest estimates go up to 3% annual growth for certain decades close to 1900).[0][1][2]

Some regions or sectors might have experienced higher growth spurts, but the main point stands: the overall economic growth was quite low by modern standards - even though I don't think GDP numbers alone adequately describe the huge societal changes of such sustained growth compared to agrarian cultures before the Industrial Revolution.

[0] https://web.archive.org/web/20071127032512/http://minneapoli... [1] https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/how-has-growth-ch... [2] https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/21/2/141/3044162

It also gets all of these things wrong, like not paying attention to models of toilets and quirks for their repair, often speaking with an authoritative voice and deceiving you on the validity of its instructions.

All of the things you site are available via search engines, or better handled with expertise so you know how much of the response is nonsense.

Every time I use AI, it's a time waste.

Every time I contact an enterprise for support, the person I'm talking to gets lots of things wrong too. It takes skepticism on my part and some back and forth to clean up the mess.

On balance AI gets more things wrong than the best humans and fewer things wrong than average humans.

The difference is that a human will tell you things like "I think", "I'm pretty sure" or "I don't know" in order to manage expectations. The LLM will very matter-of-factly tell you something that's not right at all, and if you correct them the LLM will go and very confidently rattle off another answer based on what you just said, whether your were telling it the truth or not. If a human acted that way more than a few times we'd stop asking them questions or at least have to do a lot of "trust but verify." LLMs do this over and over again and we just kind of shrug our shoulders and go "well they do pretty good overall."
I can't count the number of times I've had a support person confidently tell me something that is obviously not applicable to my problem and makes completely flawed assumptions about cs/physics/networking/logic.

I get a lot of correct answers from llms, but sometimes they make shit up. Most of the time, it's some function in a library that doesn't actually exist. Sometimes even the wrong answers are useful because they tell me where to look in the reference docs. Ask it to search the web and cite sources, makes it easier to verify the answer.

I don't appreciate what's going on with AI art and AI generated slop, but the idea that they aren't a useful tool is just wild to me.

I'm not saying it's not useful, I'm saying that we hold humans giving us answers to a much higher standard than LLMs.
AI is a lossy data compression technique at best. One can always tell when an AI cheerleader/ex blockchain bro has hitched their financial wagon to this statistic based word vomit grift.
Please elaborate, preferably without breaking HN guidelines about dismissive name-calling
What is your personal productivity metric by which you have more than 10% increase? More money earned, less money spent, fewer working hours for same income, more leisure time? It needs to be something in aggregate to mean something related to what Nadella meant. There are many individual task which LLM system can help with. But there is also may ways for those gains to fail to aggregate into large overall gains. Both on personal level and on corporate, and economy wide level.
Going to safely assume you've never worked at an enterprise.

Because improving the productivity of every employee by 10% does not translate to the company being 10% more productive.

Processes and systems exist precisely to slow employees down so that they comply with regulations, best practices etc rather than move fast and break things.

And from experience with a few enterprise LLM projects now they are a waste of time. Because the money/effort to fix up the decades of bad source data far exceeds the ROI.

You will definitely see them used in chat bots and replacing customer service people though.

I think the 'grow at 10%' refers to the incremental part of the entire world/market.

during the industrial revolution(steam/electricity/internet), the world was growing, there're trains, cars, netflix

bussiness grown with productivity growing, even so, we lived through 2 world wars and dozens of economic crisis

but now is very different, when you repair the tank with LLM's help, when the labour value of repairers is decreased, there's no addition value are produced

there's a very simple thought experiment abt the result of productivity growing alone:

let's assume robotics become to a extremely high level, everything humen work can be reduced to 1/100 with help of robots, what will happen next?

You’re describing exactly what happened during both the Industrial Revolution and the advent of computer automation.

Prior to computerization and databases, millions of people were required for filing, typing, and physically transporting messages and information. All of those jobs, entire fields of work were deleted by computerization.

Even "computer" was originally a job title. For a person.
> let's assume robotics become to a extremely high level, everything humen work can be reduced to 1/100 with help of robots, what will happen next?

We work 35 hour years instead of 35 hour weeks?

Lol, ever the optimist I see.
It's always worth reminding people that wealth accumulation in the insanely rich isn't the only option
How close do we need to be for you to help a brother out? Feeling seriously unsupp0rted right now
Who suddenly knows how to measure developer productivity? I thought this was impossible.
Unless you’re producing 10% more money with AI you’re not doing shit.
Or fix a leaking faucet.

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