But in general, I agree with you. It's ridiculous when someone pretends to shut down a complex issue by citing a random paper. However, an expert can still analyze the whole academic literature on a topic and determine what the scientific consensus is and how confident we are about it.
Unfortunately, they would. There are papers with thousands of citations that don't even have data samples, just models based on assumptions.
Maybe a lot of scientist really liked the proposed 'model' and/or some discussion on the assumptions.
and cited it in their paper proposing some additions or follow on work.
That is also fine.
"Computational modelling is a useful technique for predicting the course of epidemics [1][2][3][4][5]"
The cited papers wouldn't actually support the statement because they'd all be unvalidated models, but citing documents that don't support the claim is super common and doesn't seem to bother anyone :( Having demonstrated a "consensus" that publishing unvalidated simulations is "useful", they would then go ahead and do another one, which would then be cited in the same way ad infinitum.
But there are loads of papers like this. Then you have some literature studies which look at all these papers together and get result aggregates.
Then you get some “proper” studies which link to these aggregates, and several small studies, and you’re going to read these “proper” studies which are quoted often and deemed decent or good quality.
And at no point will you realise it’s all based on shoddy foundations.
This is for example what recently happened in social psychology
That’s not a science problem. That’s a political problem. Making choices based on a single paper that may not be replicated is the problem.
I think a better position is that we should have a higher bar of what level of study or replication is required for a given situation...whether that be health, housing, infrastructure or whatever policy is coming in...what kind of monetary outlay and timeline of impact is expected. I don't think most people here would be happy with a 6-person study, unreplicated, deciding policy...so what IS the threshold?
Take the climate. Assuming the science is correct (storms worse, oceans rising, etc), let’s do a cost benefit analysis of the proposed policies.
The proposed policies in the US all dramatically increase the cost of energy (and therefore of everything), but only slightly slow the progression of warming, AND the bigger contributing countries in the developing world, esp China and India, will continue or increase their CO2 output.
We already know how to build dikes, and people who buy oceanfront property already know the risks, and over the last century we as a species have gotten really good as reducing deaths due to weather, so I don’t support the draconian carbon reduction proposals, and instead we can just deal with the side effects as they arise.
"The proposed policies in the US all dramatically increase the cost of energy" - why? How do you even begin to conclude this without looking at some sort of (economic/scientific) analysis?
"only slightly slow the progression of warming" - again, how are you concluding this?
"we as a species have gotten really good as reducing deaths" - why should this trend continue? Why should it continue in the face of more extreme weather/climate change?
All I see are things you _think_ are true, and so to you your argument seems sound. But as the comment you replied to said, all I see is ignorant, sloppy science, since any meaningful analysis of these policies is by definition science. These cost/benefits you mention are not universal apparent truths.
As to your other questions, the answer to all (which any trivial web search would answer as I did) is “I can read”.
And I didn’t “cherry pick” some particular study or some blog that supports my preconceptions. All of the links I have provided are from sources that assume severe climate change is coming without serious interventions in greenhouse gas emissions; they are all on the “climate activist” side.
Dramatically increase the cost of energy, note that this is BY DESIGN, it’s the entire point of carbon taxes and markets: https://www.npr.org/2021/12/16/1064951646/why-the-cost-of-ca...
Only slightly slow the progression of warming: https://www.science.org/content/article/paris-climate-pact-5...
Weather related deaths down 98% in past 100 years: https://reason.org/policy-study/decline-deaths-extreme-weath...
And of course now I’m being down voted for my example.
I never challenged a single point of climate orthodoxy; I never questioned whether global warming was occurring, whether it was man-made, whether the studies and models predict warming accurately, or whether the impact will be as stated. I stipulated every single one of those points. But simply my personal conclusion that I don’t believe the policy trade-off is worth it, means that my voice is not worth hearing.
How much 'policy' are you happy with that you've never checked to validate that it was properly replicated beforehand? How much of your skepticism is against "the science" on new policy you start with an initial dislike to...compared to policy that we consider as standard, are probably comfortable with, likely consider to be 'beneficial enough'...and yet haven't adequately scrutinized?
https://www.science.org/content/article/many-scientists-citi...
Almost no one is interested in having an honest discussion about whether or not the original paper actually says what it’s characterized to have said, and whether it was a good study in the first place.
So nowadays, when public policy is concerned, largely I disregard any scientific study that is introduced to support any position on the policy, and just do my own cost – benefit trade-off to determine my policy position.