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Is it really a “crushing blow”? Bowing’s continued success in the commercial aviation sector despite the MCAS issue seems to suggest that they are more or less untouchable. They’re too big to fail, and probably also too big to succeed.

It is a massive failure and also very public. Some flight booking websites now allow you to filter for non-boeing flights. Sure, Boeing can take a lot of hits due to its size, but damage accumulates, trust erodes and a tipping point could be reached somewhere. It's similar to how countries collapse in a war: First not at all, then very fast.
Boeing BDS is a different org from Boeing Commercial.

Unlike Commercial, Boeing has competition from established players like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, and RTX as well as rising players like SpaceX, Andruil, Shield AI, etc.

Ther merger with McDonnell Douglas was the death knell for BDS because at the time, commercial dealflow was significantly greater than defense and space, leading to greater prioritization of commercial, and McDonnell Douglas had a history of management issues.

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