Seems accurate. I had 1 conference paper after 1 year, same as during my actual PhD. The expiration of the initial enthusiasm modifier was brutal indeed. I dropped out at that point, but there is no such option in the simulator (perhaps it shows up only once the hope drops low enough)?

My big issue with the PhD is that it was designed to treat me as an employee in exchange for an annual salary equal to 1-2 months worth of earnings as a software freelancer. But the work was interesting. So I wondered why not be an amateur researcher instead.. Of course once I quit, real life intervened and I did little of substance during the following couple of years. I neglected the value of the focus that doing a formal program facilitates. However, I had some ideas recently and was able to establish a dialogue with a relevant research group, so the whole idea may work out after all.