9
points
I've read hundreds of posts from 5+ YOE FAANG devs unemployed for months, toiling after countless rejections but getting nowhere. I'm barely 1.5 YOE, unemployed now, sending out endless applications, but by my estimates a mediocre programmer. I feel I lucked out with my first job. The problem is I can't get myself to code endlessly in my free time like some people do: it's fairly fun to solve puzzles, but I don't enjoy it with the feverish intensity that the best developers seem to.
The market isn't the limitless growth starry-eyed future it was during the first 20 years of the 21st century. Now I imagine with AI, headcounts are just going to whittle down to the bare essentials as junior devs become completely unneeded, thus removing their chance of getting enough experience to level up to senior.
Considering all this, should I just focus my efforts on starting my own business, or switch career paths? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, but so far, after dozens of interviews that led nowhere, the results aren't changing.
Based on what you've written, my answer is: no. You don't sound cut out for it.
> The market isn't the limitless growth starry-eyed future it was during the first 20 years of the 21st century. Now I imagine with AI, headcounts are just going to whittle down to the bare essentials as junior devs become completely unneeded, thus removing their chance of getting enough experience to level up to senior.
You couldn't be more wrong.
20 years ago, you needed to buy or rent servers, pay for bandwidth, marketing/reaching your audience was hard, eyeballs were expensive, etc. To get a service off the ground, you needed to have at least $50k of cash for table stakes.
Today, you can get a virtual slice of very fast compute with very cheap bandwidth for $50/mo. It isn't unreasonable to work a minimum wage job, live very modestly, for 5 years, covering that $50/mo expense, building a product by yourself, that could become worth $1B or more.
In other words, there is practically limitless opportunity today, whereas before only those with significantly more resources had the opportunities.
If you aren't able to see the incredible opportunity you have in front of you, then yeah, you should most likely get out of the industry, because you ARE right that as software continues to get easier to create through innovation, the need for simple laborers will continue to decline.
I've been in the industry since the late 1980s, and I will say that things have only gotten better with respect to opportunity as time has passed, and everything going on today is just more signal that things are, at least in the short term, continuing to get better.
Regarding avenues for growth, it's the same story that repeats throughout history: automation. Just as the agricultural revolution and industrial revolutions supported the growth of population through increased output, the technological revolution is having the same impact over the last 20 years.
Despite the radical impact that recent, where "recent" is the past 10-20 years, technological advancement has had on life as we know it, it's my opinion that we are actually only just scratching the surface of the impact that it will have on humanity, likely over the next 100-200 years.
It's going to take a lot of people with a lot of novel ideas to take us through that revolution. And, each step will introduce changes that will free up people to pursue what comes next, to continue to build on top of the advancements that came before.
If that doesn't excite you and make you want to be part of that, then yeah, you probably should find a different career.
With our aging population that's only living longer and longer, there's already a dire shortage of healthcare professionals: perhaps you'd be better suited to pursuing that, instead?
Sorry man, but if you aren't up all night having a blast solving problems then people like me will semi-easily crush you. For decades I've lost sleep because I'm obsessed with problems.
There's no way to compete. You kinda get the leftovers, if there are any?
Maybe switch careers into something you are super passionate about, or there's a ton of job openings where passion isn't as consequential.
Sorry to say, but yeah, why _should_ you beat me if I work twice as hard?
automating baulder's gate and such; game automation made me feel like I was a god. waking up in the morning and finding a ton of items _for free?!_ my god, what an incredible feeling as a kid.
gaming tournaments, making websites for my teachers.. I probably programmed 10,000 - 20,000 hours before I was paid a substantial amount. the first "contract" I ever did was for Magic The Gathering online when I was ~12...! made a little state machine that would rarely fuck up, always recover from problems, etc. etc.
> I'm barely 1.5 YOE, unemployed now, sending out endless applications, but by my estimates a mediocre programmer.
Yep it’s a bad market right now. Luckily this industry seems to be teeming with idiots who never learn and continue to cyclically do the same thing over and over again, and I imagine eventually the market will pick up for “mediocre” types again. Ofc, do what you have to in the meantime.
> Considering all this, should I just focus my efforts on starting my own business, or switch career paths?
Start a business doing what? Switch careers to what? As I said at the start of my comment, it’s hard to give any sort of insight to something like this without knowing a bit more.
Personally I hate professional software development. Hate the work, hate the companies, hate the people, but I’m going to try to stick it out for at least a bit longer. Why? The money is unmatched. Passion is great and all, but it’s expensive to pursue outside of the most casual way. I’m not someone who pursues money at the cost of anything else, but denying that money, often a lot, is needed to seriously pursue other things is stupid.
Also, lmao at the guy saying you can create a 1B dollar product in 5 years. If it were that easy everyone would be a billionaire.
I never said it was _easy_. I said it was _possible_, and it hasn't always been possible to do with a $50/mo starting cost.
That was my point.
Opportunity today is more affordable than it has ever been in the history of computing.
I am less pessimistic about the job outlook. As both a developer and a hiring manager, I do not think the need for junior developers goes away with AI. Managers aren't magically all just writing code by whispering into the AI and having it produce their product.
A few questions/thoughts; please keep in mind I do not know the ins and outs of your situation:
- You've indicated you're sending out endless applications. As a hiring manager, one thing that particularly stands out is when the applicant shows me that they are interested in my company's specific job posting - so quality over quantity may be key. Are you including a cover letter that shows you've looked up the company a bit and are able to make a convincing argument you'd be a good fit for the job? It might seem old-school but the number of applications I see with a well-sharpened one page resume and convincing cover letter are less than 5%.
- Have you sat down and reviewed your resume with a hiring manager to help sharpen it up?
- If you are getting as far as rounds of interviews but are consistently getting rejected, it may be worth it to double check your references. Perhaps one of them feels differently about your performance than you'd expect, and is burning all of your interview hopefuls. (I encountered this on the job just this past week.)
- Have you sought and received helpful feedback from job applications where you did not succeed? Ideally this sort of feedback can help keep you from painfully repeating things.
- Are you willing to work onsite rather than remotely? Are you willing to relocate someplace less glamorous? If so, I think this may open a few new doors, and may provide opportunities to build experience.
- Regarding starting your own business. You've mentioned that you do not have a burning passion to be programming all the time. If you are considering starting your own e.g. consultancy, I'd like to note that - successful or not - one thing I've seen as a strong common factor in all entrepreneurs is that they have a strong passion or dedication to their mission and often their craft.
- Switching career paths. I do not know your situation, skills, or true expertise - but your post sounds as though you are deeply discouraged. I'd recommend seeking counsel from family or friends who know you well - they may not know software development well, but they may be able to provide perspective.
Can you tell us a bit further about your experiences and specifics on things that have worked or not?