USA has heat pumps (the technology) figured out as well.
What the USA does NOT have figured out is how to accomplish trades like HVAC and construction without massive grift.
The US has professional licensing schemes which increase costs. I had to work 5 years in the field doing HVAC work before even being eligible to get a license. Licensing limits the supply of labor while (in theory) establishing better quality. I've lived in countries with zero professional licensing and the quality of work is atrocious.
Fun fact - In some states, contracts with unlicensed contractors are unenforceable.
- Horizontal exhaust run from a furnace that was 25x longer than specified by the manufacturer
- Putting registers in very wrong places (like 2 in one room and 0 in another instead of one in each)
- (For Electrical) Rather than using junction boxes, just wire-nut together some Romex in random places in the attic.
A single digit percentage of homes globally are using heat pumps, most of the world does not have it figured out. That's specifically why Electric Air exists, they're chasing what is going to be a gigantic market (if it were already such a figured out market they couldn't get funding without a revolutionary 10x approach, YC would have little interest).
Ours are exactly the same sort of units that I saw in Singapore - they're A/C systems, but can do cold or hot. I remember when I saw the 'heat-pumps' in Singapore, I was like "Wow, why does everyone have a heat-pump" and everyone looked at me and went "What's a heat-pump?" as they always called them A/C units - doubt they ever got above 16 degrees or something.
In NL I saw loads of water/water heat pumps (so using geothermal) in plans for new buildings. The latest plans now seem to prefer air/water. The air/water is cheaper and the units nowadays are much quieter than they used to be. This is just my observations, I could be way off.
In the Netherlands, I can purchase a minisplit with installation for under €4k. It could get cheaper if I wanted something less powerful.
While your point about "single digit percentage[s]" is accurate, it's not helpful when discussing the merits of this product, or the wider industry as a whole in most of western world.
Of course it is. How would global market size, present and future, not be helpful as a discussion topic? The parent I replied to was referencing that very issue, directly or indirectly. It indicates heat pumps are still a relatively small market, and the OP company is betting it's going to get a lot larger, meaning there is a landgrab going on right now and they're aiming for capturing a segment of that future market.
You contradict your claim that it's not a helpful discussion point in pointing out how usage is skyrocketing (ie the market is getting bigger fast) and having to reference the larger established use in some parts of Europe to try to make your point. You proved it is a pertinent discussion point in trying to claim that it's not.
I’m a bit concerned about what happens when it freezes. Can the outdoor unit still I operate?
Yes as long as the parts where chosen by someone with a bare minimum of competence. The efficiency will be lower than ideal but still better than electric radiators. Norway has very high heat-pump installation rates.
> ... where the 80M single family homes in the US replace their furnaces with heat pumps.
Where did they get this statistic? I already have a heat pump and know many that do too. Are we included in this 80M estimate? What about those in the northern half of the US that also need back-up heat for when it is very cold? They aren't going to replace their furnaces with a heat pump. They might add one to their setup but replace, no.
> In addition the process of getting a heat pump is painful, including finding a trustworthy contractor, sorting out financing, and wading through rebates. And finally contractors struggle with installs because of the difficulty of properly sizing the system, and understanding if your duct work is compatible with a heat pump
I don't know the contractors they are talking about, but I literally had to say the words "heat pump" to my local Carrier installer and they did all the rest.
This heat pump is supposed to work to -15F and includes back-up resistive heat. Theoretically it can replace a heater and air conditioner anywhere. I know people north of Chicago that use a similar heat pump and resistive backup system and it's been fine to -30F keeping the house at 69F.
> I don't know the contractors they are talking about, but I literally had to say the words "heat pump" to my local Carrier installer and they did all the rest.
There's definitely a bias against them when natural gas is available. Until probably the past 3-4 years very few HVAC contractors in the midwest were familiar with heat pumps or had bad experiences 5-15 years back and recommended against them as it's "too cold" for them to work here.
What region are you in? Local contractor knowledge around heat pumps is quite regional.
> ... where the 80M single family homes in the US replace their furnaces with heat pumps.
Why would 13.6M homes with heat pumps need to replace their heat pump with a heat pump?
What percentage of that 80M single family homes have a climate that can run on heat pumps?
Not all houses are alike, and you'll never know what is inside a wall/attic where a customer wants to install it, or what kind of electrical work will be needed. (might have to run a new 240v line). Dirt work may be required for the exterior condenser.
If anything, a sweaty startup offering just the install for a nominal fee would do really well here.