Judging by the US, at least 200 thousand. We’ve had just over 1 million deaths with a population of 330 million. Of course, many of those 330 million still haven’t had COVID, and many of the cases have been vaccinated people (so they were much less likely to die), and the healthcare system would likely do worse in China. So I’d give a rough estimate of 500 thousand deaths, but that’s a very general guess.