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Any model superior to what Jane Street is running is worth vastly more than the prizes they’re offering.

If you prove such a model out, get licensed (SEC, FINRA) and start soliciting to manage assets.

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Not a lawyer, not your fiduciary.


>Jane Street has spent decades developing their own trading models and machine learning solutions to identify profitable opportunities and quickly decide whether to execute trades. These models help Jane Street trade thousands of financial products each day across 200 trading venues around the world.

>Admittedly, this challenge far oversimplifies the depth of the quantitative problems Jane Streeters work on daily, and Jane Street is happy with the performance of its existing trading model for this particular question. However, there’s nothing like a good puzzle, and this challenge will hopefully serve as a fun introduction to a type of data science problem that a Jane Streeter might tackle on a daily basis.

Sounds like it's just for fun/recruiting rather than trying to crowd source new strategies -- I'm sure if they were looking to crowd source strats they'd pay a whole lot more than 40k for first place

This contest seems like the equivalent of the "inventor's hotline" infomercial. If it identifies one promising new approach that they can iterate on, it has probably paid for itself. It also serves as a good PR and recruiting tool. The prize is probably designed to bring in clever non-professionals. It's a win-win for Jane Street
The inventors hotline infomercial is a scam where they get you to pay for expensive patent filing, consulting, and marketing packages. They never intend to actually use any of the inventions.
If someone has a good idea, you don't want the idea, you want the person. If you take the idea, at best you'll split the market with the person who had the idea. At worst they'll iterate and you'll get nothing. Far better to find people who have the skills to develop an idea.

Having said that you also want to find the (vastly more in number) people who can take someone else's idea and actually implement it.

I sincerely doubt they think they'll get actionable ideas. It seems like a fun recruiting play from a company that takes pride in hiring non-traditional talent.
why would they need to pay more? the nature of smart people is to undervalue themselves and to not negotiate, so as long as smart people keep doing that other people can take advantage of that.
Because they would hire the person in hopes of new ideas.
True, and I don't think they expect models that are superior to their own, I'd look at this as a hiring / marketing tool. Plus, even if you had a model that from a pure engineering standpoint was able to match Jane Street's approach, the model would not work without the wealth of proprietary (and expensive) data sources that Jane Street is sure to ingest, so you still couldn't just go out and do it yourself without some serious upfront investment first to get the same data. That is assuming all data they use is even available commercially, which I doubt as well. There are probably data sources that only become available to you through personal relationships with the right folks at the right places.
To me, this seems more like a funnel for recruiting
With an engineer phone screen and three on-site interviews, that's 4 hours of engineer time. $150/hr compensation per engineer, so cost is roughly 2x, $300/hr. So $1.2k to run a candidate through the pipeline post-initial-qualification.

To get one candidate and come out superior, acceptance rate should be 1%. (i.e. 99 failures). But if there are 50 leads from the program, and you convert a fifth, that's 10 candidates for a cost / successful recruit of $10k which means you have 10% acceptance rate to break even.

Hmm, back of the envelope seems to do all right as a strat. Relatively cheap. I recall the last time we were hiring, we projected cost per hire at $35k with the bulk of that actually being the recruiter referral fee.

I think you are significantly underestimating the cost per hour of jane street employees
I have first party information, two years out of date. Do you have contradictory first party information? Yes/no will be sufficient for me to adjust my priors and I will be grateful.
Disclaimer: I have no first hand info.

According to https://news.efinancialcareers.com/ch-en/307393/jane-street-... "Last year, Jane Street's graduate hires straight from college were said to be paid a $200k annual base salary, plus a $100k sign-on bonus, plus a $100k-$150k guaranteed performance bonus."

According to random people in reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/cscareerquestions/comments/69k0ap/d... "somebody said they got an offer from JS for $150k + $50k/yr "performance"-based bonus"

Both may be true.

The correct metric is not what the employee’s salary is, but the opportunity cost of their time. If all your engineers are working on urgent stuff, and each engineer adds in $1-2m of revenue a year, then the cost to your business of taking them off feature work to do recruiting is not $150/hr.
Package for just-graduated SWEs is about $400k.
Such competitions might have two goals in mind: recruiting and signal diversification. The recruiting angle is obvious.

Any alpha that is not fully correlated to existing alpha is worth its weight in gold for an organization with the size, sophistication and complexity of JS. That's part of the reason why efforts such as 2Sigma's Alpha Studio exist: https://alphastudio.com/

That's a general problem with a lot of kaggle-esque comps: but then I don't discount the number of unemployed or intellectually curious very intelligent people out there, even if they're doing the equivalent of pushing down against the value of my wage/ bargaining power and doing the datascience equivalent of working for reputation/recruitment.

hell, the thing about us hackers is I can KNOW it's a dud deal, yet part of me still wants to give it a go because it's a problem and it's right there!

You don't have to (and certainly won't) beat all of Jane Street. The goal is to beat everyone else on Kaggle. A still difficult but much more accomplishable task.
Yeah, I’m arguing to not disclose the model. It’s worth far more held close.

If you want to work at Jane Street, go work for Jane Street. If you want to build your own models and run your own shop, the tools exist for you to do that without Jane Street (although there’s probably some amount of value learning the ropes there while they pay you, if that’s your thing).

My comments in thread are primarily around not having someone’s work exploited by sophisticated hedge/prop trading/investment professionals, which I’ve seen happen more than once, and for which you have no recourse.

My point is the winning model of the competition will not be worth anything beyond the prize. It will only be the best amongst other kagglers, almost none of whom are domain experts in finance. It will not stand a chance in "prod".
Assuming it passes some absolute measure(s) of quality. You could be the best on Kaggle and still have a mediocre model.
A backtested model is similar to a great startup idea. There is a huge amount of work to be done before it is worth much.
You are ignoring execution, infrastructure and real-market conditions. The model is just one part of the game.
+1 so much this

Jane Street is a high frequency firm. In this domain execution & infrastructure matters as much if not more than your algo secret sauce.

What good is kagglers' favorites giant boosted bagged lightgbm/xgboost/neural ensembles which will take seconds to predict, when my FPGA or ASIC running in the same rack as exchange's matching engine can make a million trades in the meantime with a much simpler strategy involving nothing beyond freshman math (take a cue in XTX Markets' firm name, for example)

And in the longer timeframes, the edge is more often than not in the data than training algo.

Quantopian tried this. Didn't work out. Now they have been acquihired by Robin Hood.
Talk about the blind leading the blind...
Robinhood knows exactly what it's doing. They are democratizing options trading, which allows market makers like Citadel and G1X to collect premiums on a larger universe of assets with high volatility and large spreads.

A portion of the profits these market makers collect are rebated to RH, which, alongside cash sweep and RH Gold, comprise the bulk of their revenue.

RH makes money by keeping trade volumes and user engagement high. They don't care if you make or lose money on their platform, as long as the trades keep happening.

part of what makes trading hard, and especially quantitative trading, is the necessary infrastructure. not just the obvious stuff like execution but also the infra to manage backtesting, risk sizing and management, etc. big firms offer this and lots of data and allow researchers to focus on the small parts where they can become subject domain experts.
'Admittedly, this challenge far oversimplifies the depth of the quantitative problems Jane Streeters work on daily, and Jane Street is happy with the performance of its existing trading model for this particular question'
Why do you think this competition will result in a model superior to what Jane Street is running?
The winner model will likely outperform anything that Jane Street could come up with this 130 feature set. With 3000+ competitors, the top 10 will likely be superior to what Jane Street can do in-house. Then an ensemble of the top solutions will be the best possible model anyone can come up with.
On a frozen feature set and evaluation dataset, sure. 3000+ competitors vs a few employees at JS who prepped this data. In light of very noisy data, the chances are not really on JS side here. But would the best model still be as useful on novel out of sample data is very questionable

Market prediction is low signal-to-noise problem, what's much more likely the contest will be an exercise in overfitting and the final shake up will be yuuuge.

I'm just fairly skeptical of this comment.

I understand that there are more models being thrown at the solution space, but if you think about people at jane street, while they don't have 3000 employees working on these, they've got a few hundred, and then if you think about the _time_ they spend on (the real, not this kaggle competition simplified stuff) models, I think there's a good chance that they'll have a significant advantage in man-hours (it's a full time job).

Also, while there is a high standard to people doing kaggle competitions, I think you can easily discard >90% of them as not being super competitive, then your 3000 models becomes 300, and those 300 have less than 1/3 of the time spent on them that jane street-ers are spending on their models.

(I realise it's not an apples to apples comparison, as the models they're working on are different since this is a toy example, but you said "will outperform anything that Jane Street _could_ come up with)

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